Your personal meteorologist presumably predicts rain on days in the future, when it could happen, not days in the past. Nate publishes predictions for events t

Your personal meteorologist presumably predicts rain on days in the future, when it could happen, not days in the past. Nate publishes predictions for events that will never occur pr(x wins | election today) when there is no election. It would be like me placing bets on a sports game that is not scheduled to be played.