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Isn't Taleb arguing that his model comes being modeled during periods of relative calm. So when the black swan event does happen, that wasn't priced in as a pos

• iainmerrick 8y ago
  “his model” meaning Silver’s model? That sounds like it might be right. I think another commenter here correctly identified that it’s a misunderstanding -- Silver’s model estimates “the election result of the election were to happen tomorrow”, so unlikely events in the coming months don’t need to be accounted for by definition. If so, I think there’s a valid criticism that the “now-cast” notion is a bit deceptive, and also impossible to validate (we’ll never know what that hypothetical election result would actually have been).
  • dragonwriter 8y ago
    > Silver’s model estimates “the election result of the election were to happen tomorrow” The nowcast does, but the nowcast isn't the main output, the two (polls-plus and polls-only) forecast models are.