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I know, right? Every time my meteorologist gives me a probability of rain on a day that it doesn't rain I ask the same question.
by pohl 8y ago
I know, right? Every time my meteorologist gives me a probability of rain on a day that it doesn't rain I ask the same question.
- steve19 8y agoYour personal meteorologist presumably predicts rain on days in the future, when it could happen, not days in the past. Nate publishes predictions for events that will never occur pr(x wins | election today) when there is no election. It would be like me placing bets on a sports game that is not scheduled to be played.
- dralley 8y agoMeteorologists don't try to predict the weather 2 months from now.
- pohl 8y agoNate hasn't been trying to predict elections that far out, either, to be fair. He has always said some variant of "if the election were held today" when discussing the model.