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> How does this compare with the medieval warming period as far as impact on agriculture? It’s been so dry in germany that river levels sunk far enough to make

> How does this compare with the medieval warming period as far as impact on agriculture? It’s been so dry in germany that river levels sunk far enough to make so-called hungerstones visible again. These mark historic low levels that are associated with severe droughts and starvation. The fact that we’re not starving is a testament to how much modern agriculture improved our resilience, but there’s a limit to that. https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungerstein_(Wasserstandsmarkierung) https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungerstein_(Wasserstandsmar...

yters 8y ago
I've not understood how this demonstrates unprecedented climate change, since presumably there is past precedent that laid the hungerstones in the first place. This seems to demonstrate this level of warming happened before in the medieval ages, before human caused global warming was possible. Wouldn't this mean hungerstones count as evidence against human caused global warming?
- peteradio 8y ago
  Depends, how many uncorrelated rare (in the no global climate change hypothesis) events are simultaneously occurring?
  - yters 8y ago
    Yes, that's a good point. But, then what is our basis of comparison? When the hungerstones were laid was there not similar warming going on elsewhere? Without knowing this, it is hard to draw conclusions from the hungerstones.
tucaz 8y ago
It's not like we have been wrong about this a hundred and twenty-three times before. In 2014, "science" was telling us for sure that the big lakes would go dry in just a few years due to climate change effects [0]. It is 2019 now and the same lakes that were disappearing, less than five years ago, are now reaching record levels [1]. If something is wrong, someone has to do something, right? We can't just sit on our asses and wait. Hey, government! Go do something! [0] - https://thinkprogress.org/the-great-lakes-go-dry-how-one-fifth-of-the-worlds-fresh-water-is-dwindling-away-e9efe2c72891/ https://thinkprogress.org/the-great-lakes-go-dry-how-one-fif... [1] - https://www.weather.gov/mkx/highlakemichiganwaterlevel https://www.weather.gov/mkx/highlakemichiganwaterlevel
- mort96 8y ago
  From your first link: > Increasingly, scientists believe that climate change is driving the warming waters and setting up a new regime in the Great Lakes that may lead to lower lake levels and a permanently altered shoreline. ... > “The El Niño-driven warmer temperatures are a surrogate for what the future climate might be. The lower lake levels during that time may be a signal of what might be happening under longer term climate change.” I don't see where it says scientists were saying anything for sure, the claim is just that the lower water level "may" be caused by climate change. The truth is that climate is complex and climate models are imperfect; there's a lot we don't know for sure. What we _do_ know for sure, however, is that atmospheric CO2 has a big influence on the earth's climate, that periods of higher levels of CO2 has historically been at the same time as higher temperatures, and that we are seeing actual measurable changes in things like average temperatures. The effects those changes have on any particular lake, wether its water levels will drop due to increased evaporation, or rise due to wetter summers, is hard to say for certain; we can just strive for making ever more accurate predictive models. Also, the graph in your second link isn't loading, so I can't comment specifically on that. > If something is wrong, someone has to do something, right? We can't just sit on our asses and wait. Hey, government! Go do something! Yeah. Other than a revolution, the most realistic way to make sure that happens is to vote for people who care about this stuff, and against e.g people who claim climate change is a hoax.
  - tucaz 8y ago
    I don't know who downvoted you, but I upvoted you because I think it's unfair to downvote someone just because they have a different opinion. I have been downvoted too many times before with no explanation so it's just right that I do what I think is right for others. Back to the topic at hand. If you tell me that by giving you the essay backed by scientists the article I provided is missing, will help change your opinion I will hunt it down and provide it to you. > Yeah. Other than a revolution, the most realistic way to make sure that happens is to vote for people who care about this stuff, and against e.g people who claim climate change is a hoax. We don't need a government to do anything or a revolution. We actually need the opposite. Keep the government out of it and you will see how much better our lives will get. Freedom is the path to success.

yters 8y ago

I've not understood how this demonstrates unprecedented climate change, since presumably there is past precedent that laid the hungerstones in the first place. This seems to demonstrate this level of warming happened before in the medieval ages, before human caused global warming was possible. Wouldn't this mean hungerstones count as evidence against human caused global warming?

peteradio 8y ago
Depends, how many uncorrelated rare (in the no global climate change hypothesis) events are simultaneously occurring?
- yters 8y ago
  Yes, that's a good point. But, then what is our basis of comparison? When the hungerstones were laid was there not similar warming going on elsewhere? Without knowing this, it is hard to draw conclusions from the hungerstones.

tucaz 8y ago

It's not like we have been wrong about this a hundred and twenty-three times before. In 2014, "science" was telling us for sure that the big lakes would go dry in just a few years due to climate change effects [0]. It is 2019 now and the same lakes that were disappearing, less than five years ago, are now reaching record levels [1]. If something is wrong, someone has to do something, right? We can't just sit on our asses and wait. Hey, government! Go do something! [0] - https://thinkprogress.org/the-great-lakes-go-dry-how-one-fifth-of-the-worlds-fresh-water-is-dwindling-away-e9efe2c72891/ https://thinkprogress.org/the-great-lakes-go-dry-how-one-fif... [1] - https://www.weather.gov/mkx/highlakemichiganwaterlevel https://www.weather.gov/mkx/highlakemichiganwaterlevel

mort96 8y ago
From your first link: > Increasingly, scientists believe that climate change is driving the warming waters and setting up a new regime in the Great Lakes that may lead to lower lake levels and a permanently altered shoreline. ... > “The El Niño-driven warmer temperatures are a surrogate for what the future climate might be. The lower lake levels during that time may be a signal of what might be happening under longer term climate change.” I don't see where it says scientists were saying anything for sure, the claim is just that the lower water level "may" be caused by climate change. The truth is that climate is complex and climate models are imperfect; there's a lot we don't know for sure. What we _do_ know for sure, however, is that atmospheric CO2 has a big influence on the earth's climate, that periods of higher levels of CO2 has historically been at the same time as higher temperatures, and that we are seeing actual measurable changes in things like average temperatures. The effects those changes have on any particular lake, wether its water levels will drop due to increased evaporation, or rise due to wetter summers, is hard to say for certain; we can just strive for making ever more accurate predictive models. Also, the graph in your second link isn't loading, so I can't comment specifically on that. > If something is wrong, someone has to do something, right? We can't just sit on our asses and wait. Hey, government! Go do something! Yeah. Other than a revolution, the most realistic way to make sure that happens is to vote for people who care about this stuff, and against e.g people who claim climate change is a hoax.
- tucaz 8y ago
  I don't know who downvoted you, but I upvoted you because I think it's unfair to downvote someone just because they have a different opinion. I have been downvoted too many times before with no explanation so it's just right that I do what I think is right for others. Back to the topic at hand. If you tell me that by giving you the essay backed by scientists the article I provided is missing, will help change your opinion I will hunt it down and provide it to you. > Yeah. Other than a revolution, the most realistic way to make sure that happens is to vote for people who care about this stuff, and against e.g people who claim climate change is a hoax. We don't need a government to do anything or a revolution. We actually need the opposite. Keep the government out of it and you will see how much better our lives will get. Freedom is the path to success.