Unless I am misunderstanding what signal averaging is (quite possible) isn't it possible that in situations where the average of a signal is still going to cras

Unless I am misunderstanding what signal averaging is (quite possible) isn't it possible that in situations where the average of a signal is still going to crash the plane, a 50/50 guess is actually more likely to end up with a better chance? If true, it's possible signal averaging isnt necessarily the best choice