4 ms·

I had my own experience of hearing and reacting to this same information at roughly the same time. As i recall the story then was that we would start to see ext

by cam_l 8y ago

I had my own experience of hearing and reacting to this same information at roughly the same time. As i recall the story then was that we would start to see extreme weather events becoming more common within 20 years, political instability due to changes in climate (ie. Droughts etc) the next 30 years, and potentially runaway climate change in the 50-100 year period. Prey much spot on so far. Edit: the thing that actually scares me more than any of this is the preliminary evidence of slowing wind and ocean currents.

mythrwy 8y ago
What I was told was considerably more extreme and on a much shorter timeline. As for political instability due to drought, not sure that's not always happened. Is weather actually more extreme now than it was 30 years ago? I don't think so. Anyway, not a denialist. But neither am I that much of an eminent worrier anymore, nor do I really believe the models are necessarily that accurate. But, fossil fuels aren't a great idea anyway, they are dirty all around. I guess we will see in another 20 years if runaway climate change happens. Maybe I'll climb back on the worried train.
- orhmeh09 8y ago
  The weather is more extreme than it was 30 years ago. I don’t feel the need to cite ever-increasing broken records and such like; there are too many to report. We’re already suffering very badly.
  - mythrwy 8y ago
    I don't see the weather as more extreme than it was 30 (or 100) years ago. I realize this is said in the media and on certain sites, but I don't see it actually being the case. There have always been droughts, hurricanes, floods, even more extreme events in the past than we have witnessed over the last few decades. It would be interesting to objectively determine a baseline for "extreme" events and plot the frequency over last two or three centuries though, that I'd like to see and it might convenience me. CNN breathlessly stating "Hurricane caused by global warming!" doesn't though.
    - orhmeh09 8y ago
      Are you familiar with the weather this spring in the midwestern US? It is extreme and unprecedented. There are quite a few scientists who have been studying the extreme nature of the changes occurring over the past few decades. Here are some sources to help get you up to speed. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midwest-flooding-perfect-storm-of-extreme-weather-climate-change-drove-deadly-flooding-in-nebraska-and-iowa/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midwest-flooding-perfect-storm-... : Perfect storm of extreme weather and climate change drove deadly Midwest flooding https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.h...: New data show that extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 36 years, with a significant uptick in floods and other hydrological events compared even with five years ago, according to a new publication, "Extreme weather events in Europe: Preparing for climate change adaptation: an update on EASAC's 2013 study" by the European Academies' Science Advisory Council (EASAC), a body made up of 27 national science academies in the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland. Given the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, EASAC calls for stronger attention to climate change adaptation across the European Union: leaders and policy-makers must improve the adaptability of Europe's infrastructure and social systems to a changing climate. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/... : The US government maintains a website warning of these threats: As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts. https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/ https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-... : The U.S. Northern Plains and East Africa droughts of 2017, floods in South America, China and Bangladesh, and heatwaves in China and the Mediterranean were all made more likely by human-caused climate change, according to new research published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). The seventh edition of the report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2017 from a Climate Perspective, also included analyses of ocean heat events, including intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea off of Australia in 2017 and 2018 that were “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change. Also included are analyses of Australian fires and Uruguay flooding.

by cam_l 8y ago

mythrwy 8y ago

What I was told was considerably more extreme and on a much shorter timeline. As for political instability due to drought, not sure that's not always happened. Is weather actually more extreme now than it was 30 years ago? I don't think so. Anyway, not a denialist. But neither am I that much of an eminent worrier anymore, nor do I really believe the models are necessarily that accurate. But, fossil fuels aren't a great idea anyway, they are dirty all around. I guess we will see in another 20 years if runaway climate change happens. Maybe I'll climb back on the worried train.

orhmeh09 8y ago
The weather is more extreme than it was 30 years ago. I don’t feel the need to cite ever-increasing broken records and such like; there are too many to report. We’re already suffering very badly.
- mythrwy 8y ago
  I don't see the weather as more extreme than it was 30 (or 100) years ago. I realize this is said in the media and on certain sites, but I don't see it actually being the case. There have always been droughts, hurricanes, floods, even more extreme events in the past than we have witnessed over the last few decades. It would be interesting to objectively determine a baseline for "extreme" events and plot the frequency over last two or three centuries though, that I'd like to see and it might convenience me. CNN breathlessly stating "Hurricane caused by global warming!" doesn't though.
  - orhmeh09 8y ago
    Are you familiar with the weather this spring in the midwestern US? It is extreme and unprecedented. There are quite a few scientists who have been studying the extreme nature of the changes occurring over the past few decades. Here are some sources to help get you up to speed. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midwest-flooding-perfect-storm-of-extreme-weather-climate-change-drove-deadly-flooding-in-nebraska-and-iowa/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/midwest-flooding-perfect-storm-... : Perfect storm of extreme weather and climate change drove deadly Midwest flooding https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180321130859.h...: New data show that extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 36 years, with a significant uptick in floods and other hydrological events compared even with five years ago, according to a new publication, "Extreme weather events in Europe: Preparing for climate change adaptation: an update on EASAC's 2013 study" by the European Academies' Science Advisory Council (EASAC), a body made up of 27 national science academies in the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland. Given the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, EASAC calls for stronger attention to climate change adaptation across the European Union: leaders and policy-makers must improve the adaptability of Europe's infrastructure and social systems to a changing climate. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/... : The US government maintains a website warning of these threats: As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts. https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/ https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-... : The U.S. Northern Plains and East Africa droughts of 2017, floods in South America, China and Bangladesh, and heatwaves in China and the Mediterranean were all made more likely by human-caused climate change, according to new research published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). The seventh edition of the report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2017 from a Climate Perspective, also included analyses of ocean heat events, including intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea off of Australia in 2017 and 2018 that were “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change. Also included are analyses of Australian fires and Uruguay flooding.