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So looking at the graphs in the video it seems that 2016-2017 saw very significant jumps. Is there significant reason to think that wasn't a random phenomenon?

So looking at the graphs in the video it seems that 2016-2017 saw very significant jumps. Is there significant reason to think that wasn't a random phenomenon? AFAIK, contributers to climate change didn't also jump up (ie, we don't have 20% more emissions). If so, what's the thing that the science is suggesting is the cause?

thesausageking 8y ago
What's non-intuitive about climate science is that the climate is a non-linear system. You may have heard of the "Butterfly Effect". It comes from ideas set out by MIT Meteorologist Edward Lorenz. In his seminal paper "Deterministic non-periodic flow" (1963), he set out a model of atmospheric convection and showed that temperature and fluid motion interact very non-linearly as one feedbacks into the other. This means a small change in one, can have little impact in the other. But doing another small change in one can cause a feedback loop which creates a huge effect in the other. In his words, "one flap of a seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever". The scary conclusion this leads to is that the climate doesn't always change gradually. After decades of gradual change from temperature increases, it can hit a tipping point where a feedback loop occurs leading to very rapid change, very suddenly. And unfortunately we don't know exactly where this will occur. Many climate scientists believe we're already there.
- ilikehurdles 8y ago
  An example... Soil releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as temperatures rise, creating a self-intensifying loop.
  - pizzazzaro 8y ago
    Or... Melting Arctic/Siberian sea ice may release methane into the air, a greenhouse has several times more potent than carbon dioxide. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafrost-melting-methane-emissions-geologic-sources-study https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafros...
- thatoneuser 8y ago
  I don't disagree that complex differential equations govern climate. But if the best we can do is say "it's too complex to show correlation" well then don't be surprised when people think you're selling snake oil. I don't, but that's just not strong science.

thesausageking 8y ago

What's non-intuitive about climate science is that the climate is a non-linear system. You may have heard of the "Butterfly Effect". It comes from ideas set out by MIT Meteorologist Edward Lorenz. In his seminal paper "Deterministic non-periodic flow" (1963), he set out a model of atmospheric convection and showed that temperature and fluid motion interact very non-linearly as one feedbacks into the other. This means a small change in one, can have little impact in the other. But doing another small change in one can cause a feedback loop which creates a huge effect in the other. In his words, "one flap of a seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever". The scary conclusion this leads to is that the climate doesn't always change gradually. After decades of gradual change from temperature increases, it can hit a tipping point where a feedback loop occurs leading to very rapid change, very suddenly. And unfortunately we don't know exactly where this will occur. Many climate scientists believe we're already there.

ilikehurdles 8y ago
An example... Soil releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as temperatures rise, creating a self-intensifying loop.
- pizzazzaro 8y ago
  Or... Melting Arctic/Siberian sea ice may release methane into the air, a greenhouse has several times more potent than carbon dioxide. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafrost-melting-methane-emissions-geologic-sources-study https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072017/arctic-permafros...
thatoneuser 8y ago
I don't disagree that complex differential equations govern climate. But if the best we can do is say "it's too complex to show correlation" well then don't be surprised when people think you're selling snake oil. I don't, but that's just not strong science.