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I understand the selection principle, but do we realistically think that's what's happening? Are there really lots of people recording detailed, insightful, co

I understand the selection principle, but do we realistically think that's what's happening? Are there really lots of people recording detailed, insightful, coherent, highly varied, but wrong theories of the future that we are rejecting? Why would I have to imagine it if it were really going on?

kbutler 16y ago
Yes. "detailed, insightful, coherent, highly varied, but wrong theories of the future" are made all the time. The really amazing things are not the genius predictions that are right and venerated, but the predictions that are wrong but the predictors are still venerated. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus - 1798 predictions of "gigantic inevitable famine" because of population growth. (Industrialization and technology have allowed population growth dramatically beyond Malthusian limits. The same arguments are still made today however.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticisms_of_Marxism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticisms_of_Marxism - "the socialist revolution would occur first in the most advanced capitalist nations and once collective ownership had been established then all sources of class conflict would disappear" http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/ http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/ "labour intensive industries ought to have a higher rate of profit than those which use less labour" (argue about whatever forces you want that have defeated socialism, but the argument continues) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager Malthusian environmentalist Ehrlich predicts hundreds of millions of people starving to death in 1970s and 80s, and a genuine age of scarcity." He also loses 10-year bet against economist Simon. "All of [Ehrlich's] grim predictions had been decisively overturned by events...Repeatedly being wrong actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow upon the speaker." [Wired] Recorded, detailed, insightful, coherent, highly varied, completely wrong. Oh, and Ehrlich won the MacArthur Foundation genius award AFTER his predictions were proven wrong... kb

kbutler 16y ago

Yes. "detailed, insightful, coherent, highly varied, but wrong theories of the future" are made all the time. The really amazing things are not the genius predictions that are right and venerated, but the predictions that are wrong but the predictors are still venerated. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus - 1798 predictions of "gigantic inevitable famine" because of population growth. (Industrialization and technology have allowed population growth dramatically beyond Malthusian limits. The same arguments are still made today however.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticisms_of_Marxism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticisms_of_Marxism - "the socialist revolution would occur first in the most advanced capitalist nations and once collective ownership had been established then all sources of class conflict would disappear" http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/ http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/ "labour intensive industries ought to have a higher rate of profit than those which use less labour" (argue about whatever forces you want that have defeated socialism, but the argument continues) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager Malthusian environmentalist Ehrlich predicts hundreds of millions of people starving to death in 1970s and 80s, and a genuine age of scarcity." He also loses 10-year bet against economist Simon. "All of [Ehrlich's] grim predictions had been decisively overturned by events...Repeatedly being wrong actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow upon the speaker." [Wired] Recorded, detailed, insightful, coherent, highly varied, completely wrong. Oh, and Ehrlich won the MacArthur Foundation genius award AFTER his predictions were proven wrong... kb