7 ms·

I can see a small niche for hybrids, a small, constant speed engine coupled to a charger to get you past dead spots with no chargers, but the handwriting is on

I can see a small niche for hybrids, a small, constant speed engine coupled to a charger to get you past dead spots with no chargers, but the handwriting is on the wall for IC passenger vehicles, and possibly for long haul trucks. While it is true that gas/diesel has a higher energy per tank as well as a faster tank 'fill' time, this does not make up for the far higher cost per mile for the liquid fuels, AND the complexity of thousands of small parts threshing and wearing away. Electric motors are routinely made to run for 100,000 hours and upwards, because they have rotary bearings and only torque to contend with versus the 2500 rpm of IC engines with bearing impact bangs of the IC engine many times per revolution, and the timing belts, and the tappets hammering and the valves burning away, and the muffler and pollution control gizmos rotting and crumbling away. And brakes, with regenerative braking (which wears nothing) we have already seen brake linings on Teslas and others hit 500,000 miles - more? I can see an era of polyurethane(PU) tires also good for 500,000 miles. They cost more, but they run more and are a lot tougher against road damage than rubber. Sure, any fool can burn rubber and jam on the brakes and, in effect, burn $$ to kill them faster, but I am betting that regen braking as well as more AI in the control box that has the potential to avoid almost all friction based braking, because that AI knows your route (mostly - from experience), when to slow with regen for the turns and curves. The moving hand writes, pauses, points it's thumbs down, and moves on. IC engines are in a downwards race to nowhere. It looks like there is no lithium shortage at all. Cobalt looks like a scarcer element, which adds cost, but electrode design is improving almost monthly and less cobalt is needed. In addition, cobalt is a recyclable material and this will soon be almost 100% captured for re-use, as the growing shortage drives the reward for recycling it.

vvanders 8y ago
As someone who owns a long range EV I don't see trucking/towing going away soonish. Even towing marginal 6-8k loads we see ~11mpg in our efficient truck(v6 turbodiesel). The energy density just isn't there for 100mi+ trips. That said I'd kill for a diesel electric truck, love the torque and smoothness of our EV.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Tesla’s new Raven motors and a more energy dense pack based off the 2170 cells in the Model 3 make this use case within reach. Their Semi is dragging a 80k tractor trailer load (concrete blocks) around to demonstrate the high end working. Disclaimer: I occasionally tow ~2500lbs with my Model S. Works very well, no Auotpilot though while towing.
  - erk__ 8y ago
    How much does the range degrade when towing?
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      I lose 40-50% of range, depending on the weight and aerodynamic profile of the load; went with a 100D to mitigate the reduced towing range.
      - salty_biscuits 8y ago
        I wonder how much range you could get back with a trailer equipped with regenerative breaking? Or if it would be too much for the battery to cope with?
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        The vehicle recovers the collective momentum of both it and the trailer when braking.
        salty_biscuits 8y ago
        The trailer is unbreaked? That seems rather dangerous!
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
screye 8y ago
Won't it be inefficient to convert engine displacement - > charge - > vehicle displacement again? I wonder if it is instead possible to have a universal battery installer. A universal battery pack that serves the same purpose as what you suggest, the size of a small engine + petrol tank. One that is cross compatible with all electric cars. (the hard part) maybe it can be a section in the boot itself. So when not in use, it is simply boot space. (will be easier to be universally. Compatible too) as long as there is a power in the boot. You pick one up from a store and as long you return it to another store inside of a few hours, you are only charged the cost of electricity + battery rental.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  The trouble with this is that the amount of battery it takes to be equivalent to a tank of gasoline weighs on the order of a thousand pounds. They only get away with it as part of the car because the electric motor is light (~70 pounds compared to ~400 for a gasoline engine) and you also eliminate the fuel tank, transmission, exhaust system, etc. The battery is also large enough that the shape is dictated by the shape of the car. Making them easily swappable wouldn't be easy. The more likely solution is to just increase the number of charging points, and then have models specifically designed with larger batteries for people who need longer ranges. The existing ranges are already sufficient for typical usage. Most people rarely drive more than 300 miles in one day, and almost never drive more than 600 miles in one day, so we're already at the point that on 99% of days you don't have to care about it at all and then on the occasional road trip you have to stop for an hour out of every five to have a meal and charge the vehicle.
AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> Electric motors are routinely made to run for 100,000 hours and upwards, because they have rotary bearings and only torque to contend with versus the 2500 rpm of IC engines with bearing impact bangs of the IC engine many times per revolution, and the timing belts, and the tappets hammering and the valves burning away, and the muffler and pollution control gizmos rotting and crumbling away. This is why the series hybrids don't really make sense. If you have to add an engine to generate electricity then it needs a fuel tank, a cooling system, an exhaust system, etc. By the time you add all of that stuff, you might as well just use that cost and weight to put in a bigger battery. There is no technical reason you can't use an arbitrarily large battery to get arbitrarily long range, it's just that the incremental cost exceeds the incremental benefit for most people, so the current EVs are targeting the much larger number of people who don't actually need that much range. They're also supply constrained on battery production right now, so targeting the niche that requires a very large battery doesn't make sense yet. This is somewhat what I would expect to eventually see out of a pickup or something that competes with a Chevy Suburban. You have a large vehicle, so plenty of room for batteries in the floor, which you also need to get reasonable range when transporting heavy loads. But then if you're not transporting a heavy load, the same batteries provide much more range than a vehicle which is trying to be spry and sporty.
- ianai 8y ago
  I think battery tech needs to be much cheaper for it to really answer peoples’ needs. But I do see the situations you’re describing. A half ton truck can afford a pretty hefty battery pack, weight wise. Budget wise it gets pricy quickly. I wonder what sort of battery could be afforded in a larger chassis that’d normally go for 90k, though.
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > I think battery tech needs to be much cheaper for it to really answer peoples’ needs. Yes, absolutely, which is what's happening. Lithium battery prices have been falling for years. The price today is too high for a competitive light truck. The price in four or five years time, however?
- 8y ago

vvanders 8y ago

As someone who owns a long range EV I don't see trucking/towing going away soonish. Even towing marginal 6-8k loads we see ~11mpg in our efficient truck(v6 turbodiesel). The energy density just isn't there for 100mi+ trips. That said I'd kill for a diesel electric truck, love the torque and smoothness of our EV.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
Tesla’s new Raven motors and a more energy dense pack based off the 2170 cells in the Model 3 make this use case within reach. Their Semi is dragging a 80k tractor trailer load (concrete blocks) around to demonstrate the high end working. Disclaimer: I occasionally tow ~2500lbs with my Model S. Works very well, no Auotpilot though while towing.
- erk__ 8y ago
  How much does the range degrade when towing?
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    I lose 40-50% of range, depending on the weight and aerodynamic profile of the load; went with a 100D to mitigate the reduced towing range.
    - salty_biscuits 8y ago
      I wonder how much range you could get back with a trailer equipped with regenerative breaking? Or if it would be too much for the battery to cope with?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        The vehicle recovers the collective momentum of both it and the trailer when braking.
        salty_biscuits 8y ago
        The trailer is unbreaked? That seems rather dangerous!
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]

screye 8y ago

Won't it be inefficient to convert engine displacement - > charge - > vehicle displacement again? I wonder if it is instead possible to have a universal battery installer. A universal battery pack that serves the same purpose as what you suggest, the size of a small engine + petrol tank. One that is cross compatible with all electric cars. (the hard part) maybe it can be a section in the boot itself. So when not in use, it is simply boot space. (will be easier to be universally. Compatible too) as long as there is a power in the boot. You pick one up from a store and as long you return it to another store inside of a few hours, you are only charged the cost of electricity + battery rental.

AnthonyMouse 8y ago
The trouble with this is that the amount of battery it takes to be equivalent to a tank of gasoline weighs on the order of a thousand pounds. They only get away with it as part of the car because the electric motor is light (~70 pounds compared to ~400 for a gasoline engine) and you also eliminate the fuel tank, transmission, exhaust system, etc. The battery is also large enough that the shape is dictated by the shape of the car. Making them easily swappable wouldn't be easy. The more likely solution is to just increase the number of charging points, and then have models specifically designed with larger batteries for people who need longer ranges. The existing ranges are already sufficient for typical usage. Most people rarely drive more than 300 miles in one day, and almost never drive more than 600 miles in one day, so we're already at the point that on 99% of days you don't have to care about it at all and then on the occasional road trip you have to stop for an hour out of every five to have a meal and charge the vehicle.

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> Electric motors are routinely made to run for 100,000 hours and upwards, because they have rotary bearings and only torque to contend with versus the 2500 rpm of IC engines with bearing impact bangs of the IC engine many times per revolution, and the timing belts, and the tappets hammering and the valves burning away, and the muffler and pollution control gizmos rotting and crumbling away. This is why the series hybrids don't really make sense. If you have to add an engine to generate electricity then it needs a fuel tank, a cooling system, an exhaust system, etc. By the time you add all of that stuff, you might as well just use that cost and weight to put in a bigger battery. There is no technical reason you can't use an arbitrarily large battery to get arbitrarily long range, it's just that the incremental cost exceeds the incremental benefit for most people, so the current EVs are targeting the much larger number of people who don't actually need that much range. They're also supply constrained on battery production right now, so targeting the niche that requires a very large battery doesn't make sense yet. This is somewhat what I would expect to eventually see out of a pickup or something that competes with a Chevy Suburban. You have a large vehicle, so plenty of room for batteries in the floor, which you also need to get reasonable range when transporting heavy loads. But then if you're not transporting a heavy load, the same batteries provide much more range than a vehicle which is trying to be spry and sporty.

ianai 8y ago
I think battery tech needs to be much cheaper for it to really answer peoples’ needs. But I do see the situations you’re describing. A half ton truck can afford a pretty hefty battery pack, weight wise. Budget wise it gets pricy quickly. I wonder what sort of battery could be afforded in a larger chassis that’d normally go for 90k, though.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > I think battery tech needs to be much cheaper for it to really answer peoples’ needs. Yes, absolutely, which is what's happening. Lithium battery prices have been falling for years. The price today is too high for a competitive light truck. The price in four or five years time, however?
8y ago