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To imply that Florida is the sole reason that the National Flood Insurance Program will stay is really out there. Other states along the Gulf are big recipients

by jdhn 8y ago

To imply that Florida is the sole reason that the National Flood Insurance Program will stay is really out there. Other states along the Gulf are big recipients, and there's always the chance that a hurricane will swing up the eastern seaboard, in which case everything from Georgia to at least North Carolina will be using that program. There's also the chance of inland flooding if there's enough snowmelt or rain so that the Mississippi overflows its banks. That being said, I agree with you that the program should go away. I'd like to have it phased out over the course of 10 years so that people can adjust to the new prices rather than have a huge shock up front.

ethbro 8y ago
I mean, the southern tip of FL, the outer banks of NC, and the mid gulf coast really are the problem [1, NOAA, Return Period Between Major Hurricanes] The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names. "In particular, the overall shortfall of $1.4 billion is attributable largely to premiums’ falling short of expected costs in coastal counties, which constitute roughly 10 percent of all counties with NFIP policies but account for three-quarters of all NFIP policies nationwide." You know who pays the highest NFIP rates? Connecticut. The lowest? Florida. [1] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg [2] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53028 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53028
- vonmoltke 8y ago
  > The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names. The CBO is calling out FEMA's estimates of future losses as being too low. As far as the administrators of the program are concerned, premiums are set appropriately. This report doesn't really apply to this discussion, other than to highlight that the coastal counties cost significantly more (and pay significantly more) than the inland counties covered by the program.
  - ethbro 8y ago
    CBO's implication being that FEMA is knowingly setting future losses in coastal areas too low. And indeed, the reason FEMA is doing that is because Congress explicitly tells it to. See this example of political football: Biggert–Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 passed to properly set rates. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Affordability_Act_of_2013#Biggert%E2%80%93Waters_Flood_Insurance_Reform_Act_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Af... Leading to the Homeowner_Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2013, essentially prohibiting rates from raising. Amazingly, the CBO scored this as neutral due to some offsetting surcharges elsewhere. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Affordability_Act_of_2013#Provisions_of_the_bill https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Af... Suffice to say, Florida votes are absolutely being bought with artificially low rates through the NFIP.

by jdhn 8y ago

ethbro 8y ago

I mean, the southern tip of FL, the outer banks of NC, and the mid gulf coast really are the problem [1, NOAA, Return Period Between Major Hurricanes] The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names. "In particular, the overall shortfall of $1.4 billion is attributable largely to premiums’ falling short of expected costs in coastal counties, which constitute roughly 10 percent of all counties with NFIP policies but account for three-quarters of all NFIP policies nationwide." You know who pays the highest NFIP rates? Connecticut. The lowest? Florida. [1] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg [2] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53028 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53028

vonmoltke 8y ago
> The CBO [2, "The National Flood Insurance Program: Financial Soundness and Affordability"] calls that out as clearly as possible without naming names. The CBO is calling out FEMA's estimates of future losses as being too low. As far as the administrators of the program are concerned, premiums are set appropriately. This report doesn't really apply to this discussion, other than to highlight that the coastal counties cost significantly more (and pay significantly more) than the inland counties covered by the program.
- ethbro 8y ago
  CBO's implication being that FEMA is knowingly setting future losses in coastal areas too low. And indeed, the reason FEMA is doing that is because Congress explicitly tells it to. See this example of political football: Biggert–Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 passed to properly set rates. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Affordability_Act_of_2013#Biggert%E2%80%93Waters_Flood_Insurance_Reform_Act_of_2012 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Af... Leading to the Homeowner_Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2013, essentially prohibiting rates from raising. Amazingly, the CBO scored this as neutral due to some offsetting surcharges elsewhere. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Affordability_Act_of_2013#Provisions_of_the_bill https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeowner_Flood_Insurance_Af... Suffice to say, Florida votes are absolutely being bought with artificially low rates through the NFIP.