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This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line re

by CPLX 8y ago

This article is patent nonsense. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author, and an anecdotal poll of front line real estate agents is mindless. Even in that context the real estate agent’s worldview seems a lot more sanguine than hers. History has shown in this country that you’re a lot more likely to be right predicting that the rich will figure out how to preserve their assets than betting on the other side of that argument. A shame because it’s an interesting topic. What will a city like Miami look like in 50 years? It’s an interesting question with a lot of unpredictability in it, based on combinations of climate science, financial predictions, cultural shifts, and some guesswork. Would have loved to read an article about the various perspectives on that, but that would have required the author to really do some work. Instead they decided they knew the answer already and flew there to make fun of people just trying to get through a day at work.

stevenwoo 8y ago
There's a bit of that in this older article. The problem of spoiling of fresh water is insurmountable. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-how-rising-sea-levels-endanger-south-florida-200956/ https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-ho...
- chr1 8y ago
  Why is it insurmountable? With cheap solar energy desalination becomes cheaper. And even without that countries like Israel now use desalinated water for 70% of their total water use.
  - rabidrat 8y ago
    Where do you put the salt? Israel has that problem now.
  - stevenwoo 8y ago
    Insurmountable perhaps is too strong - economically unfeasible may be better. But all the cheap fresh water most of Florida have now goes away in the near future. This is in addition to all the other problems listed in the article that other areas of the USA will not have. Israel may be a good technical example but not a practical example, it has to make the most of their limited land for expansion and geopolitical situation of being surrounded by enemies - they also do not have to care about financial considerations since the about 1/3 of the USA's foreign aid goes to Israel, the political situation in the USA means this foreign aid is pretty safe for the forseeable future.
Tsubasachan 8y ago
Rich people have multiple passports, Swiss bank accounts and real estate in New Zeeland for when shit goes down. They have options. Namely get the hell out of Dodge. I don't think they are really all that attached to Miami.
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  Miami's mistake was in not developing their port to be a more critical piece of infrastructure to the United States. It's just not that important as a port. As a piece of infrastructure in the US portfolio, it's totally expendable. It's just not a New Orleans, or Norfolk, or Galveston/Houston type port. Not sure what the best way forward for Miami is? Dams and pumps won't help, because they sit on limestone. They could try to recreate Venice, but they already have some fairly serious issues with algae blooms. Shallow canals will definitely not help those issues. I don't know? Maybe there will be some new technique for living with water than comes along, and they can implement that technology? But you're correct, at the moment, the most reasonable course of action is definitely, "Get the hell out of Dodge."
- js2 8y ago
  “Rich is a fleet of private planes with a decoy to hide your scent”: https://youtu.be/N7Wami6CJiA https://youtu.be/N7Wami6CJiA
- scurvy 8y ago
  There's a ton of dumb, rich money in Miami pushing prices up to embezzle money out of corrupt regimes all over the world. When things get bad, they'll just find the next place and fly out on private jets. Those flying commercial will be left holding the bag. Just remember that Miami Beach isn't Miami. There are a lot of Miami residents who don't feel like putting a dime into Miami Beach because it's only tourists and foreigners.
malchow 8y ago
I agree. The opening of the article intrigued me, so I read it. All I could think was: what fun to read about a lady who has never met a real estate agent !
nikdaheratik 8y ago
You say that, but Detroit is a pretty good counterexample. Tons of money / land just left to rust because it wasn't worth the effort. And that was just due to industrial changes not even something approaching a natural process. If the ports not worth that much, the beaches (and tourism) has washed away, they've got a new sewage problem due to rising waters, and they can't get fresh water as easily, then what reason is there to rebuild? You need trade, fresh water, and waste removal to keep a city running, and for Miami, they're going to have problems with all three areas.
YjSe2GMQ 8y ago
It gives one schadenfreude to think that such people live in Miami. If only we could move all climate change deniers to low lying areas, and get others out.
king_magic 8y ago
You really think it’s nonsense? I mean, it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen. The city will be under water, and relatively speaking, fairly soon. It’s basic physics at the end of the day. Beyond that, this article really cuts to the heart of the astounding carelessness and wastefulness of humanity. IMHO, we deserve what we’re about to get.
fencepost 8y ago
Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author True enough if you want detailed predictions, but the generalizations that are pretty much assured are bad enough. Will there be 3 feet of rise in that time? Unlikely. 1? Maybe, maybe not. How much rise does there actually need to be for raw sewage in the streets to be an issue any time there's a heavy rain? The other thing is storm surge in hurricanes. Nobody can tell you now exactly how high future storm surges will be, but a foot of rise still means that the same amount of storm surge will be a foot higher than in the past - 2 feet higher than a century ago. With increasing storm intensity due to higher energy levels those surges and rainfall totals are only going to get higher.

by CPLX 8y ago

stevenwoo 8y ago

There's a bit of that in this older article. The problem of spoiling of fresh water is insurmountable. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-how-rising-sea-levels-endanger-south-florida-200956/ https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/miami-ho...

chr1 8y ago
Why is it insurmountable? With cheap solar energy desalination becomes cheaper. And even without that countries like Israel now use desalinated water for 70% of their total water use.
- rabidrat 8y ago
  Where do you put the salt? Israel has that problem now.
- stevenwoo 8y ago
  Insurmountable perhaps is too strong - economically unfeasible may be better. But all the cheap fresh water most of Florida have now goes away in the near future. This is in addition to all the other problems listed in the article that other areas of the USA will not have. Israel may be a good technical example but not a practical example, it has to make the most of their limited land for expansion and geopolitical situation of being surrounded by enemies - they also do not have to care about financial considerations since the about 1/3 of the USA's foreign aid goes to Israel, the political situation in the USA means this foreign aid is pretty safe for the forseeable future.

Tsubasachan 8y ago

Rich people have multiple passports, Swiss bank accounts and real estate in New Zeeland for when shit goes down. They have options. Namely get the hell out of Dodge. I don't think they are really all that attached to Miami.

bilbo0s 8y ago
Miami's mistake was in not developing their port to be a more critical piece of infrastructure to the United States. It's just not that important as a port. As a piece of infrastructure in the US portfolio, it's totally expendable. It's just not a New Orleans, or Norfolk, or Galveston/Houston type port. Not sure what the best way forward for Miami is? Dams and pumps won't help, because they sit on limestone. They could try to recreate Venice, but they already have some fairly serious issues with algae blooms. Shallow canals will definitely not help those issues. I don't know? Maybe there will be some new technique for living with water than comes along, and they can implement that technology? But you're correct, at the moment, the most reasonable course of action is definitely, "Get the hell out of Dodge."
js2 8y ago
“Rich is a fleet of private planes with a decoy to hide your scent”: https://youtu.be/N7Wami6CJiA https://youtu.be/N7Wami6CJiA
scurvy 8y ago
There's a ton of dumb, rich money in Miami pushing prices up to embezzle money out of corrupt regimes all over the world. When things get bad, they'll just find the next place and fly out on private jets. Those flying commercial will be left holding the bag. Just remember that Miami Beach isn't Miami. There are a lot of Miami residents who don't feel like putting a dime into Miami Beach because it's only tourists and foreigners.

malchow 8y ago

I agree. The opening of the article intrigued me, so I read it. All I could think was: what fun to read about a lady who has never met a real estate agent !

nikdaheratik 8y ago

You say that, but Detroit is a pretty good counterexample. Tons of money / land just left to rust because it wasn't worth the effort. And that was just due to industrial changes not even something approaching a natural process. If the ports not worth that much, the beaches (and tourism) has washed away, they've got a new sewage problem due to rising waters, and they can't get fresh water as easily, then what reason is there to rebuild? You need trade, fresh water, and waste removal to keep a city running, and for Miami, they're going to have problems with all three areas.

YjSe2GMQ 8y ago

It gives one schadenfreude to think that such people live in Miami. If only we could move all climate change deniers to low lying areas, and get others out.

king_magic 8y ago

You really think it’s nonsense? I mean, it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen. The city will be under water, and relatively speaking, fairly soon. It’s basic physics at the end of the day. Beyond that, this article really cuts to the heart of the astounding carelessness and wastefulness of humanity. IMHO, we deserve what we’re about to get.

fencepost 8y ago

Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen to Miami in 50 years including the author True enough if you want detailed predictions, but the generalizations that are pretty much assured are bad enough. Will there be 3 feet of rise in that time? Unlikely. 1? Maybe, maybe not. How much rise does there actually need to be for raw sewage in the streets to be an issue any time there's a heavy rain? The other thing is storm surge in hurricanes. Nobody can tell you now exactly how high future storm surges will be, but a foot of rise still means that the same amount of storm surge will be a foot higher than in the past - 2 feet higher than a century ago. With increasing storm intensity due to higher energy levels those surges and rainfall totals are only going to get higher.