5 ms·

We will regulate your entire car out of existence. Soon.

supertrope 8y ago
Battery electric vehicles still have a lead acid battery in addition to the main lithium-ion one. It makes no sense to substitute a 10^3 USD lithium battery for a 10^2 USD lead battery.
reitzensteinm 8y ago
Even if parent were making the comment you thought you were relying to, you're in a bubble if you genuinely believe that ICEs are going to be regulated out of existence any time soon.
- cagenut 8y ago
  assuming 15 years for 100% fleet turnover and a target of zero carbon-emissions from gasoline/cars in the US by 2040, new ICEs will need to be banned in about six years.
  - tgsovlerkhgsel 8y ago
    And how likely, according to your estimate, is this to actually happen, vs. the target falling in the category of "I love deadlines and the whooshing sound they make as they fly by"?
    - cagenut 8y ago
      things only get worse the more we procrastinate. it is a compounding debt.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... Costa Rica has banned new combustion vehicle sales as of 2021, Norway 2025, and other countries 2030-2040. As EVs go mainstream, I expect those deadlines to be pulled forward.
  - reitzensteinm 8y ago
    Costa Rica installed their first public charger in 2017, and has a $10k GDP per capita. The details in this Clean Technica article are damning for this claim. It's pure post election puffery and the plan will be quietly set aside. Norway is aggressive, but the rest of Europe is generally targeting 2030. I'm not expecting the US to even come close to the EU, as range is a much larger factor there. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/31/costa-rica-is-on-the-brink-of-an-evolution-cleantechnica-exclusive/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/31/costa-rica-is-on-the-br...
- m463 8y ago
  I agree with you. However, I can't help but think that a shift in economics might be the method of changing over, maybe rather quickly.
crowdpleaser 8y ago
Come and take it. Good luck chasing me in an electric vehicle.
- zaroth 8y ago
  Please go to YouTube and search for “Tesla Ludicrous”.
  - crowdpleaser 8y ago
    I ain't racing to 60. I'm racing to ~120-140 and seeing how long those Teslas can hang with a machine that's optimized to go fast and far
zaroth 8y ago
Soon enough it won’t even make sense to buy an ICE, once the gas stations all start closing for lack of business. IMO the bans are silly politics and really just grandstanding. We are barely into the adoption curve of EVs and already a base Model 3 is cheaper to own than an Accord or Camry. Give EVs 10 more years (a relative eternity) and they will probably be the majority of new vehicles sold just due to market forces. 10 years after that gas stations will have trouble staying in business. Any fleet will have to switch to EV to be cost competitive on a $/mi basis. Once you can spend $1 to save $1.10 (including interest on the loan) anyone with access to financing will go EV. Which with interest rates only going lower, is almost everyone. The best way to incentivize the next wave of adoption IMO is dramatically reducing the cost of non-peak electricity. Generation costs are already dropping significantly but retail rates are still averaging over 10 cents for supply and another 10 cents for delivery. In MA for example, many areas do not even offer TOU billing, and where it is offered it only reduces the generation cost slightly, not the supply cost, so it barely even saves 25%, which is asinine. [1] My impression is we should be able to deliver non-peak energy for under $0.08/kWh total, supply and generation all-in. That would significantly increase EV adoption! [1] - https://www.eversource.com/clp/vpp/vpphistory.aspx#EMA https://www.eversource.com/clp/vpp/vpphistory.aspx#EMA

Battery electric vehicles still have a lead acid battery in addition to the main lithium-ion one. It makes no sense to substitute a 10^3 USD lithium battery for a 10^2 USD lead battery.

reitzensteinm 8y ago

Even if parent were making the comment you thought you were relying to, you're in a bubble if you genuinely believe that ICEs are going to be regulated out of existence any time soon.

cagenut 8y ago
assuming 15 years for 100% fleet turnover and a target of zero carbon-emissions from gasoline/cars in the US by 2040, new ICEs will need to be banned in about six years.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 8y ago
  And how likely, according to your estimate, is this to actually happen, vs. the target falling in the category of "I love deadlines and the whooshing sound they make as they fly by"?
  - cagenut 8y ago
    things only get worse the more we procrastinate. it is a compounding debt.
toomuchtodo 8y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... Costa Rica has banned new combustion vehicle sales as of 2021, Norway 2025, and other countries 2030-2040. As EVs go mainstream, I expect those deadlines to be pulled forward.
- reitzensteinm 8y ago
  Costa Rica installed their first public charger in 2017, and has a $10k GDP per capita. The details in this Clean Technica article are damning for this claim. It's pure post election puffery and the plan will be quietly set aside. Norway is aggressive, but the rest of Europe is generally targeting 2030. I'm not expecting the US to even come close to the EU, as range is a much larger factor there. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/31/costa-rica-is-on-the-brink-of-an-evolution-cleantechnica-exclusive/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/31/costa-rica-is-on-the-br...
m463 8y ago
I agree with you. However, I can't help but think that a shift in economics might be the method of changing over, maybe rather quickly.

crowdpleaser 8y ago

Come and take it. Good luck chasing me in an electric vehicle.

zaroth 8y ago
Please go to YouTube and search for “Tesla Ludicrous”.
- crowdpleaser 8y ago
  I ain't racing to 60. I'm racing to ~120-140 and seeing how long those Teslas can hang with a machine that's optimized to go fast and far

zaroth 8y ago

Soon enough it won’t even make sense to buy an ICE, once the gas stations all start closing for lack of business. IMO the bans are silly politics and really just grandstanding. We are barely into the adoption curve of EVs and already a base Model 3 is cheaper to own than an Accord or Camry. Give EVs 10 more years (a relative eternity) and they will probably be the majority of new vehicles sold just due to market forces. 10 years after that gas stations will have trouble staying in business. Any fleet will have to switch to EV to be cost competitive on a $/mi basis. Once you can spend $1 to save $1.10 (including interest on the loan) anyone with access to financing will go EV. Which with interest rates only going lower, is almost everyone. The best way to incentivize the next wave of adoption IMO is dramatically reducing the cost of non-peak electricity. Generation costs are already dropping significantly but retail rates are still averaging over 10 cents for supply and another 10 cents for delivery. In MA for example, many areas do not even offer TOU billing, and where it is offered it only reduces the generation cost slightly, not the supply cost, so it barely even saves 25%, which is asinine. [1] My impression is we should be able to deliver non-peak energy for under $0.08/kWh total, supply and generation all-in. That would significantly increase EV adoption! [1] - https://www.eversource.com/clp/vpp/vpphistory.aspx#EMA https://www.eversource.com/clp/vpp/vpphistory.aspx#EMA