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I predict this title will not age well. The progress is accelerating. Material science is getting revolutionized by cheap computation and large-scale simulation

I predict this title will not age well. The progress is accelerating. Material science is getting revolutionized by cheap computation and large-scale simulations.

d-sc 8y ago
Yeah. Agreed. Also, new technologies tend to come along and disrupt things from completely outside the scope of the people working within the industry.
dredmorbius 8y ago
There's only so much room at the top of the periodic table.
- bufferoverflow 8y ago
  So? Alloys, compounds, and metamaterials give you an almost infinite search space.
  - dredmorbius 8y ago
    There are limits to electronic charges found, period. Adding additional elements increases mass. https://youtube.com/watch?v=AdPqWv-eVIc https://youtube.com/watch?v=AdPqWv-eVIc
    - bufferoverflow 8y ago
      So? We don't know what we don't know. We might find some way to store energy within chemical bonds like fuel (39,405 Wh/kg limit of liquid H2) or nuclear (8,700,000,000 Wh/kg of Pu-239) or matter-antimatter interaction (24,965,421,631,578 Wh/kg). Current lab records of 1000-2000 Wh/kg are just a start, we're far far away from hitting any limits.
      - dredmorbius 8y ago
        In this case, we do. Really.
stupidcar 8y ago
I think maybe you missed the point of the article, which is the scientific breakthroughs alone aren't enough. Even if you create a battery technology that is, on paper, cheaper and better performing than li-ion, the advantages inferred by incumbency mean the odds are stacked against the newcomer. I do think li-ion will be disrupted eventually, but it will be more like the process of solid-state drives replacing hard-disk drives. Only a combination of diminishing returns on incremental improvement of li-ion tech, and a competitor technology that is fundamentally superior, battle-tested in high-performance niche applications, and mostly a drop-in replacement, will create the conditions necessary for an industry switch. And even then the process will likely take many years to complete.

I predict this title will not age well. The progress is accelerating. Material science is getting revolutionized by cheap computation and large-scale simulations.

d-sc 8y ago

Yeah. Agreed. Also, new technologies tend to come along and disrupt things from completely outside the scope of the people working within the industry.

dredmorbius 8y ago

There's only so much room at the top of the periodic table.

bufferoverflow 8y ago
So? Alloys, compounds, and metamaterials give you an almost infinite search space.
- dredmorbius 8y ago
  There are limits to electronic charges found, period. Adding additional elements increases mass. https://youtube.com/watch?v=AdPqWv-eVIc https://youtube.com/watch?v=AdPqWv-eVIc
  - bufferoverflow 8y ago
    So? We don't know what we don't know. We might find some way to store energy within chemical bonds like fuel (39,405 Wh/kg limit of liquid H2) or nuclear (8,700,000,000 Wh/kg of Pu-239) or matter-antimatter interaction (24,965,421,631,578 Wh/kg). Current lab records of 1000-2000 Wh/kg are just a start, we're far far away from hitting any limits.
    - dredmorbius 8y ago
      In this case, we do. Really.

stupidcar 8y ago

I think maybe you missed the point of the article, which is the scientific breakthroughs alone aren't enough. Even if you create a battery technology that is, on paper, cheaper and better performing than li-ion, the advantages inferred by incumbency mean the odds are stacked against the newcomer. I do think li-ion will be disrupted eventually, but it will be more like the process of solid-state drives replacing hard-disk drives. Only a combination of diminishing returns on incremental improvement of li-ion tech, and a competitor technology that is fundamentally superior, battle-tested in high-performance niche applications, and mostly a drop-in replacement, will create the conditions necessary for an industry switch. And even then the process will likely take many years to complete.