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And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usne

by __HYde 8y ago

And yet: "Applications for US Unemployment Aid Fall to 49-Year Low"[0] "Unemployment Rate Reached a Record Low in 19 States Last Year"[1] [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/applications-for-us-unemployment-aid-fall-to-49-year-low https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-04-04/app... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemployment-rate-reached-a-record-low-in-19-states-last-year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-23/unemploym...

golemotron 8y ago
Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a sign of health?
- untog 8y ago
  > volatility is a sign of health Say that to the workers that got laid off, lost earnings and perhaps even the health insurance their family depends on.
  - ishjoh 8y ago
    In defence of OP, it can be a sign of health for the country but devastating to an individual.
- astrodust 8y ago
  "It's a sign of health," he says from the comfort of his yacht, taking a slow sip of champagne between big spoonfuls of Beluga caviar all while watching the city burn. "Just look at all those construction and health-care jobs being created."
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- bduerst 8y ago
  Volatility is a calculation. What volatility range is a sign of health? What range is problematic?
systemBuilder 8y ago
Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.
- bryondowd 8y ago
  Your link shows it bottoming out in 2009-2011 after the housing crash, well below the 1992 ratio. And then a steady and mostly linear climb from late 2011 to the end of the data. After that early 90s recession there's a steady rise to the dotcom burst around 2000, which bottoms around 03 and starts to rise again until the housing crash. Seems like a pattern. Progress until the financiers manage to tank the economy, repeat.
  - systemBuilder 8y ago
    It was below 1992 recession levels 2009-2018!! For 9 years we did worse than the worst point in the previous ~25 years. Due to the magic of government cooked books, nobody knew ...
moorhosj 8y ago
Meanwhile, the laborforce participation of 63% remains lower than 2014. I remember a time, when there was a different president, that this number was constantly referenced as evidence of a poor recovery. If the labor market is so robust why aren't people joining the workforce? [1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000
- lotsofpulp 8y ago
  You would have to correct for older people aging out since they make up a greater portion of the population than before. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... I would expect percentage of employed over age of 18 to be declining simply because the number of people retiring (or unable to work due to age) is greater than # of entering labor force.
  - moorhosj 8y ago
    When you look at the numbers you will see that it isn't so simple and other factors clearly come into play (social security disability is likely one factor). For example, Georgia is the second youngest state with only 9.6% of the population over 65 years-old, but they have a below average laborforce participation rate of 62.8% [1]. Pennsylvania, with 15.6% of the population over 65 is the second oldest, but has a 62.9% participation rate. Iowa is the 4th oldest state and has the 6th highest participation rate (68.8). North Dakota is 5th oldest and 3rd highest rate (69.3%). South Dakota is 8th oldest and 7th in LFPR (68.7%). [1] https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt [2] https://www.prb.org/whichusstatesaretheoldest/ https://www.prb.org/whichusstatesaretheoldest/
- RPLong 8y ago
  > If the labor market is so robust why aren't people joining the workforce? Because they don't need to work. They're not applying for unemployment and they're not taking jobs. So, logically, they're using their time on non-work-related activity. They're having fun, or otherwise doing stuff that they would rather do than work. The media has this terrible tendency to promote work as the primary marker of life success, which is a valid opinion, for sure, but it's not a universal one. Some people step out of the workforce because they can, and good for them. I expect the wealthier our society becomes, the more people will have this opportunity.

by __HYde 8y ago

golemotron 8y ago

Layoffs plus hiring. Will people realize at some point that volatility is a sign of health?

untog 8y ago
> volatility is a sign of health Say that to the workers that got laid off, lost earnings and perhaps even the health insurance their family depends on.
- ishjoh 8y ago
  In defence of OP, it can be a sign of health for the country but devastating to an individual.
astrodust 8y ago
"It's a sign of health," he says from the comfort of his yacht, taking a slow sip of champagne between big spoonfuls of Beluga caviar all while watching the city burn. "Just look at all those construction and health-care jobs being created."
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
bduerst 8y ago
Volatility is a calculation. What volatility range is a sign of health? What range is problematic?

systemBuilder 8y ago

Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.

bryondowd 8y ago
Your link shows it bottoming out in 2009-2011 after the housing crash, well below the 1992 ratio. And then a steady and mostly linear climb from late 2011 to the end of the data. After that early 90s recession there's a steady rise to the dotcom burst around 2000, which bottoms around 03 and starts to rise again until the housing crash. Seems like a pattern. Progress until the financiers manage to tank the economy, repeat.
- systemBuilder 8y ago
  It was below 1992 recession levels 2009-2018!! For 9 years we did worse than the worst point in the previous ~25 years. Due to the magic of government cooked books, nobody knew ...

moorhosj 8y ago

Meanwhile, the laborforce participation of 63% remains lower than 2014. I remember a time, when there was a different president, that this number was constantly referenced as evidence of a poor recovery. If the labor market is so robust why aren't people joining the workforce? [1] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000

lotsofpulp 8y ago
You would have to correct for older people aging out since they make up a greater portion of the population than before. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... I would expect percentage of employed over age of 18 to be declining simply because the number of people retiring (or unable to work due to age) is greater than # of entering labor force.
- moorhosj 8y ago
  When you look at the numbers you will see that it isn't so simple and other factors clearly come into play (social security disability is likely one factor). For example, Georgia is the second youngest state with only 9.6% of the population over 65 years-old, but they have a below average laborforce participation rate of 62.8% [1]. Pennsylvania, with 15.6% of the population over 65 is the second oldest, but has a 62.9% participation rate. Iowa is the 4th oldest state and has the 6th highest participation rate (68.8). North Dakota is 5th oldest and 3rd highest rate (69.3%). South Dakota is 8th oldest and 7th in LFPR (68.7%). [1] https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/ststdsadata.txt [2] https://www.prb.org/whichusstatesaretheoldest/ https://www.prb.org/whichusstatesaretheoldest/
RPLong 8y ago
> If the labor market is so robust why aren't people joining the workforce? Because they don't need to work. They're not applying for unemployment and they're not taking jobs. So, logically, they're using their time on non-work-related activity. They're having fun, or otherwise doing stuff that they would rather do than work. The media has this terrible tendency to promote work as the primary marker of life success, which is a valid opinion, for sure, but it's not a universal one. Some people step out of the workforce because they can, and good for them. I expect the wealthier our society becomes, the more people will have this opportunity.