Hi, thanks for the response. Two responses. First, I'm thinking the manipulator has an outside incentive. If trump wins, they get a million dollar kickback. So

Hi, thanks for the response. Two responses. First, I'm thinking the manipulator has an outside incentive. If trump wins, they get a million dollar kickback. So losing 500k on bets is acceptable to them. Second, I'm thinking of the following attack that actually loses nothing (if it works). The attacker doesn't bet at all in the market conditioned on trump being elected. She only bets in the other market. But she bets really heavily that beans will be expensive in that case. So we elect Trump. All trades in that other market are cancelled and the attacker gets all her money back. And she isn't even exposed to any risk on the bean price on this timeline, so to speak.