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Attempts to manipulate the outcome actually make a prediction market more accurate. Every wrong bet creates a prize for others to come and put the price where i
by zack_amoveo 8y ago
Attempts to manipulate the outcome actually make a prediction market more accurate. Every wrong bet creates a prize for others to come and put the price where it belongs.
It is important to compare futarchy against existing alternatives, instead of some imaginary ideal.
Democracy is easy to manipulate.
Each voter has little incentive to become an informed voter, and the cost to becoming informed is high.
And once informed, each voter has little incentive to vote for what is best. (the personal benefit of a good election result) * (probability that their vote mattered) is practically zero.
In this situation, people are vulnerable to bribery and propaganda.
- dragonwriter 8y ago> Democracy is easy to manipulate. Each voter has little incentive to become an informed voter, and the cost to becoming informed is high. But that feature is retained in futarchy, since the whole system relies on an elected legislature engaged in an even more abstract and difficult for a voter to concretely evaluate task than passing policy legislation directly, and that legislature remains a major target for manipulation.