In politics I've heard higher order thinking called 'running the traps.' Would love to learn of a way to apply derivatives or higher order thinking to polling a

In politics I've heard higher order thinking called 'running the traps.' Would love to learn of a way to apply derivatives or higher order thinking to polling and the decisions I make in my work. Take Trump in 2015 if voters were less likely to say they support Trump in polling which 2nd order affected Clinton campaign malpractice to not campaign in MI etc, which gave Trump election.