4 ms·

I'm not sure how much I agree with this article. In my opinion, most people's practical problems don't come from an inability to consider the later consequences

I'm not sure how much I agree with this article. In my opinion, most people's practical problems don't come from an inability to consider the later consequences of an action. They're either things completely beyond our control or they come from an inability to discipline ourselves to do the responsible thing given the consequences. People don't take the easy road because they're dumb. They take it because the hard road is hard. And as far as I can tell, gaining or building discipline oneself is nearly impossible. (To be clear, I'm not some hard core libertarian that thinks everyone has made their bed and therefore should sleep in it. I think the struggle to conform one's life to productive positive decisions is ubiquitously difficult and just telling people their problems are their own fault has probably never helped a situation.) Regarding less daily matters like foreign policy, I actually think this kind of second order thinking is a trap. It's the pride that goeth before the fall. It leads us to believe problems that are too complex, too variable and too opaque are within the grasp of our rationalim if only we think hard enough. Robert McNamara didn't advise Kennedy and LBJ deeper and deeper into the Vietnam war because he lacked second order thinking skills. He did so precisely because he had like 10th order thinking skills.

pitaj 8y ago
> To be clear, I'm not some hard core libertarian that thinks everyone has made their bed and therefore should sleep in it. I think the struggle to conform one's life to productive positive decisions is ubiquitously difficult and just telling people their problems are their own fault has probably never helped a situation. Not super relevant to the topic at hand, but I am a very hardcore libertarian, and I have to say that this is not an accurate representation of libertarian views. It's not your fault, this seems to be a common misconception among many, even some of those who call themselves libertarian. Libertarian philosophy does indeed stress personal responsibility as a part of voluntary interactions with others. However, this doesn't mean that a person's status is deterministic. Many of people's problem are not their own fault: hell, many of the problems are caused by the state, which is why we hate it. The problems that aren't caused by the state (scarcity, some inequality, externalities, etc) ate very difficult to solve, and state attempts to fix them usually result in even worse outcomes. To bring it back around to second-order thinking, it's very important in politics especially to be able to see these unforseen consequences of political action. First-order thinking is how we end up with things like the PATRIOT Act and other emotionally-driven policies.
- DubiousPusher 8y ago
  Fair enough. Let me rephrase that. I'm not some hardcore puritan...

pitaj 8y ago

> To be clear, I'm not some hard core libertarian that thinks everyone has made their bed and therefore should sleep in it. I think the struggle to conform one's life to productive positive decisions is ubiquitously difficult and just telling people their problems are their own fault has probably never helped a situation. Not super relevant to the topic at hand, but I am a very hardcore libertarian, and I have to say that this is not an accurate representation of libertarian views. It's not your fault, this seems to be a common misconception among many, even some of those who call themselves libertarian. Libertarian philosophy does indeed stress personal responsibility as a part of voluntary interactions with others. However, this doesn't mean that a person's status is deterministic. Many of people's problem are not their own fault: hell, many of the problems are caused by the state, which is why we hate it. The problems that aren't caused by the state (scarcity, some inequality, externalities, etc) ate very difficult to solve, and state attempts to fix them usually result in even worse outcomes. To bring it back around to second-order thinking, it's very important in politics especially to be able to see these unforseen consequences of political action. First-order thinking is how we end up with things like the PATRIOT Act and other emotionally-driven policies.

DubiousPusher 8y ago
Fair enough. Let me rephrase that. I'm not some hardcore puritan...