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There were two experienced pilots in Lion Air 610. In the case where prescribed procedures are followed, and don't work well enough (i.e. you're still stuck in

by cmurf 8y ago

There were two experienced pilots in Lion Air 610. In the case where prescribed procedures are followed, and don't work well enough (i.e. you're still stuck in a bad situation that continues to degrade), you're basically asking for experience to manufacturer an alternative on the spot. That's rather like a Hail Mary pass, in terms of logic. It's a 'well maybe maybe not'. I'm not sure how that progresses the conversation, and yet people on HN keep bringing this up as if it's relevant without actually showing any new dots let alone connecting them. Setting aside hard evidence proving experience is a factor, you don't even have a hypothesis of how it might be a factor. He had only 200 hours of flight time. Well so fucking what? You have to make the case. It doesn't make its own case. The reason why the U.S. has a higher regulatory requirement for experience is because of Colgan Air 3407, in part, even though the experienced pilot in command showed the same incorrect response to stall warning as the second in command, both of which were contrary to training, and also the training itself was inadequate. I've got quite a lot more total time experience than the second in command of the Ethiopian airlines pilot. I can't tell you with any meaningful certainty I would have done anything different. I'd say my life experience is more relevant than my flight hours experience. And my life experience when encountering either human or computer confusion at only 1000 feet above the ground, is to consider it somewhere between incompetency and sabotage. I would not be diagnosing that shit either way, I'd disconnect all of it. And I would be irate at discovering a form of autopilot (MCAS is a safeguard, or control law) that I was not previously informed of by either my airline, or regulator, or the airplane manufacturer. And in fact, U.S. pilots are pissed at exactly that. Including or even in particular the ones with 1500+ hours.

cameldrv 8y ago
As I said, I would not put the blame on the pilots. That is clear. Boeing made an unsafe airplane. Airline safety is a layered thing though. Even if it's Boeing's fault, it's possible that the pilots could have recovered, even though it looks like recovery is not necessarily easy. I also have a fair bit more than 200 hours, and I can't say whether I would have made a smoking hole in the ground or not either. Still, if I were put in that position, I would much rather have an experienced pilot sitting to the right of me. Having an inexperienced pilot that probably hasn't ever experienced a real emergency is a significant liability when you're trying to troubleshoot something like this without a lot of extra time. In this case, they would have had a better chance of surviving if they had identified that the problem was MCAS before the plane got so wildly out of trim, or they had made the decision to turn the electric trim back on sooner. This is a lot easier if you've got two fully fledged pilots instead of effectively a captain and an apprentice. Say what you will about the 1500 hour rule, but there has been precisely one fatality in all of U.S. aviation in the ten years since the Colgan flight.

by cmurf 8y ago

cameldrv 8y ago

As I said, I would not put the blame on the pilots. That is clear. Boeing made an unsafe airplane. Airline safety is a layered thing though. Even if it's Boeing's fault, it's possible that the pilots could have recovered, even though it looks like recovery is not necessarily easy. I also have a fair bit more than 200 hours, and I can't say whether I would have made a smoking hole in the ground or not either. Still, if I were put in that position, I would much rather have an experienced pilot sitting to the right of me. Having an inexperienced pilot that probably hasn't ever experienced a real emergency is a significant liability when you're trying to troubleshoot something like this without a lot of extra time. In this case, they would have had a better chance of surviving if they had identified that the problem was MCAS before the plane got so wildly out of trim, or they had made the decision to turn the electric trim back on sooner. This is a lot easier if you've got two fully fledged pilots instead of effectively a captain and an apprentice. Say what you will about the 1500 hour rule, but there has been precisely one fatality in all of U.S. aviation in the ten years since the Colgan flight.