No, the argument is specifically that the harm from following up on false positives outweighs the benefit from finding true positives. While the 2011 study tha

No, the argument is specifically that the harm from following up on false positives outweighs the benefit from finding true positives. While the 2011 study that the Medicare policy change is based on specifically concludes that this will not be the case, the concern is that the study found a lower false positive rate than would be seen in the wild, due to better skill and greater diligence from the radiologists participating in the study. Harm from false positives is a real thing, especially for a test with a relatively high false positive rate and relatively invasive followup to false positives (they don't state it specifically, but the theater analogy implies 66X more false positives than true) Furthermore, unlike an auto mechanic who might not be able to bill much for finding problems the owner doesn't want fixed, or following up on a diagnostic computer finding that turns out to not be a problem at all, the healthcare system at large stands to profit from both the screening and the follow up on those false positives, so the bean counting manager shouldn't be applying pressure to skip the screening.