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I think if they could do one thing to improve their chances, it would be to find a check on Elon. A Gwynne Shotwell for Tesla, basically. Someone who can divert

by tbabb 8y ago

I think if they could do one thing to improve their chances, it would be to find a check on Elon. A Gwynne Shotwell for Tesla, basically. Someone who can divert his energy towards reality, and stop him from making impulsive, insane mistakes. Example: Trying to ramp up the 3 way too fast, and over-automating their production. Those were undoubtedly very expensive missteps, and if I recall, there were a bunch of top-level departures just before the 3's ramp-up. Where those people (rightly) telling Elon that his target was unreachable, or his method inappropriate, and getting fired for it? It sure looks like it...

xkjkls 8y ago
Is Gwynne Shotwell even the best example? It isn't like SpaceX is really in the best of a financial situation. Information on their financials is limited, as they are a private company, but most information shows they haven't reached a sustainable profit, and many of their ideas of how to reach their valuation (like Satellite internet) have hit snags. Their last loan, they had to cut by $500 million due to lack of demand: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/elon-musk-s-spacex-is-said-to-cut-loan-deal-by-500-million https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/elon-musk... That doesn't seem like a company without turmoil either.
- tbabb 8y ago
  They are capital spending very heavily to advance their tech, so a lack of "profitability" I don't think says any more than it does about Tesla-- they would be fools to pocket their profit instead of turning it around to spend on growth.
  - xkjkls 8y ago
    The fact that they could fulfill their whole loan that they wanted, and that they lost many important government satellite contracts recently seems to indicate that this is a business that hasn't reached a stage that it isn't out of the woods. According to certain investors, this is a business worth $30 billion. That's not a company that should be struggling with these things. United Launch Alliance had similar revenues (right around 2.5 billion) in 2018, but most only value them at $3 billion. This 10x multiple of their most obvious competitor doesn't seem to make sense.
    - _Tev 8y ago
      Well, if you don't follow spaceflight / LVs it sure doesn't make much sense. From my PoV (very casual fan of the above) it actually is pretty spot on to value ULA at 1/10th value of SpaceX. However reasons for that are too long to go into in one comment ... Mainly origin of & current owner structure of ULA, their current LVs cost & future and dynamics of SX launch business.

by tbabb 8y ago

xkjkls 8y ago

Is Gwynne Shotwell even the best example? It isn't like SpaceX is really in the best of a financial situation. Information on their financials is limited, as they are a private company, but most information shows they haven't reached a sustainable profit, and many of their ideas of how to reach their valuation (like Satellite internet) have hit snags. Their last loan, they had to cut by $500 million due to lack of demand: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/elon-musk-s-spacex-is-said-to-cut-loan-deal-by-500-million https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/elon-musk... That doesn't seem like a company without turmoil either.

tbabb 8y ago
They are capital spending very heavily to advance their tech, so a lack of "profitability" I don't think says any more than it does about Tesla-- they would be fools to pocket their profit instead of turning it around to spend on growth.
- xkjkls 8y ago
  The fact that they could fulfill their whole loan that they wanted, and that they lost many important government satellite contracts recently seems to indicate that this is a business that hasn't reached a stage that it isn't out of the woods. According to certain investors, this is a business worth $30 billion. That's not a company that should be struggling with these things. United Launch Alliance had similar revenues (right around 2.5 billion) in 2018, but most only value them at $3 billion. This 10x multiple of their most obvious competitor doesn't seem to make sense.
  - _Tev 8y ago
    Well, if you don't follow spaceflight / LVs it sure doesn't make much sense. From my PoV (very casual fan of the above) it actually is pretty spot on to value ULA at 1/10th value of SpaceX. However reasons for that are too long to go into in one comment ... Mainly origin of & current owner structure of ULA, their current LVs cost & future and dynamics of SX launch business.