Just to put this into perspective a bit: I doubt that any of those "awesome" success stories like facebook, twitter or whatnot would have ever been found a "rea

Just to put this into perspective a bit: I doubt that any of those "awesome" success stories like facebook, twitter or whatnot would have ever been found a "really good business idea" a few years ago; go back 10, 20 years and offering ANYTHING like storage for free on the intarwebs was most definitely not just a bad but a stupid business idea. Like you said earlier, a lot of it is luck, just like winning the lottery. By not playing/trying at all you will most definitely not win any lottery. Doing exactly 100% the same that is already existing anyway (facebook,twitter,myspace..) doesn't sound like a great idea but improving on that, well why not?