11 ms·

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, th

by yumraj 8y ago

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Something akin to Intel and computers, so that you can buy a car with Tesla inside. That will allow Tesla to focus on it's core strength and innovate while leaving the car manufacturing, QA, sales, support and such to traditional car companies.

thebeefytaco 8y ago
Didn't Tesla already open source all their patents?
- softwaredoug 8y ago
  There’s a big difference between a patent and a working product
- yumraj 8y ago
  There are patents and then there are trade secrets. I would guess that Tesla's trade secrets are equally or a lot more valuable, and perhaps pertain to manufacturing processes, than their patents.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- sangnoir 8y ago
  Only if you never sue Tesla for anything - including them infringing your patents
bksenior 8y ago
You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your ability should port to "things like it." Seems like Tesla is going to extend itself to death.
- pbreit 8y ago
  What has Elon done or think he has done that is similar?
- notfromhere 8y ago
  It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing
  - cromwellian 8y ago
    Isn’t that sorta like what Steve Ballmer said about the iPhone, and then laughed?
    - notfromhere 8y ago
      Cars don't have network effects like smartphones do
      - jhayward 8y ago
        People talk to each other about their cars and whether they like them. That's a network effect.
  - pmart123 8y ago
    I'd be skeptical about this. The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. Unfortunately, Solar-city and taking on convertible debt vs. equity have shrunk down their runway. Had they not done the related party transaction and issued equity, I think they could ramp production at a slower rate without the quality issues you hear about. I don't think Elon's episodes have helped his case either the last year. An interesting question though is whether there was anyone else in the world who could have created a car company in the 21st century, and gotten it to as far as he has?
    - 8y ago
webXL 8y ago
> to the various car manufacturers Or to Apple/Google. While I'm a big fan, I fail to see how they become a dominant player in the industry, especially when most of their much larger competitors have committed to producing similar cars. Transportation as a service seems like it has more room for growth.
Klathmon 8y ago
I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps and mistakes are speed bumps rather than mountains to get over. Sadly I also think they can't afford to slow down, because if they do I really think the other larger car companies will eat their lunch.
- yumraj 8y ago
  If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around. Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a better word). I think I would love that, especially since (disclaimer: I do not own a Tesla), the Model S and 3 that I've sat in, seem very spartan from a luxury vehicle standpoint. Moreover, to my other point: this will free Tesla to innovate like crazy on battery, charger, motor and drivetrain technology and perhaps attain a monopolistic lead , while in the car business I the competition is beginning to creep up. From a traditional car manufacturer's standpoint, this may allow them to stop spending on battery/drivetrain/superchargers/... technology and focus on making the car shell.
  - jfoster 8y ago
    Have you talked to Tesla owners much about this? I think you'll find that they do value the package far beyond the mechanics that move the car. In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. I see that Tesla is very serious about bringing the benefits of autonomy to market across all their vehicles.
    - dragonwriter 8y ago
ineedasername 8y ago
I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bear on these things. For me the main question of Tesla is whether or not they can lower the cost fast enough to avoid having big manufacturers gobble up the low end of the market first. Volkswagen's MEB platform, for example, is set to come online with about 150,000 vehicles in 2020, a projected range around 300 miles, and cost in the $21,000 area. Will Tesla's still be nicer? Very likely. Will that matter? Not to people looking to spend under $30,000 for the their next car.
- SEJeff 8y ago
  They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unrivalled and makes the tesla batteries cheaper to manufacturer. There are also patents around several of the chemistry specific things that ensures Tesla will in fact stand alone for some time in these areas. When it comes to battery tech, Tesla handily stands on their own. [1] https://www.inc.com/wanda-thibodeaux/the-inventor-of-lithium-ion-batteries-has-a-new-product-hint-tesla-will-love-it.html https://www.inc.com/wanda-thibodeaux/the-inventor-of-lithium...
  - sgift 8y ago
    > Goodenough and his team aren't quite finished with the new battery. They've only created the glass-based anode. But they're working out kinks with the cathode, and soon they'll be able to make some large-scale cells. This seems like one of these sentences which you kind of miss on the first read and many years later when you wonder "what happened to that wonder battery?" "Remember the cathode we thought was almost done? Turns out it wasn't." Until they have produced that thing at scale it is still part of a long list of research products in the battery sector, which may never be available.
zaksoup 8y ago
Tesla tried this with Toyota on the Rav4 EV, for which Tesla provided battery and drivetrain. Toyota decided Tesla was so hard to work with that it was worth ending all future partnerships. Tesla also provided the full battery and Drivetrain for the Mercedes-Benz B-class EV and Daimler ultimately cancelled the project to bring the technology in-house. I don't think the issue is that Tesla is unwilling to be an OEM, but that their customers are unwilling to out-source development of extremely competitive technologies to a relatively volatile supplier. https://insideevs.com/insight-toyota-tesla-partnership-marred-clashes-engineers/ https://insideevs.com/insight-toyota-tesla-partnership-marre... https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340139/bye-bye-baby-b-mercedes-spikes-its-electric-subcompact-eyes-more-mainstream-evs/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340139/bye-bye-baby-b-m...
- jmpman 8y ago
  The RAV4EV and Mercedes were built as California compliance cars. They’re fantastic vehicles (I own a RAV4EV), and with a bit more range, I’d prefer that over the Model Y. Notice that these were released back in 2012, and almost 7 years later, there isn’t a comparable SUV for less than $75k. Once Toyota produced their required 2600 cars to get sufficient California credits, they ended the program.
  - zaksoup 8y ago
    I don't disagree that they're great cars (I tried very hard to find and purchase a b class), but the reporting I linked suggests strongly that both Daimler and Toyota intended to continue the partnership past just the CARB complaince models but ultimately changed their minds. This was not a limited partnership that was always ended to end at 2600 models.
    - jmpman 8y ago
      Maybe it was intended to last longer. The vehicle pricing was up in the $50k+ range, and I think deep discounting was required to move them. Rumor is that Toyota lost many millions. Cars.com allows you to search for the Rav4EV and B-class rather easily. The RAV4EV is going for around $14k these days. It’s a great commuter car, but doesn’t have the distance to make it a very practical solo vehicle. I supplement mine with a huge Suburban.
dragonwriter 8y ago
> I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. Isn't the battery tech, at least in significant part, licensed, non-exclusively, from Panasonic? > I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Possibly, on an expected value basis, but Tesla is being run on a swing for the fences basis not a maximizing expected value basis.
- stcredzero 8y ago
  Isn't the battery tech, at least in significant part, licensed, non-exclusively, from Panasonic? It's producing the whole battery unit that's the hard part. Toyota gets their automatic transmissions from another company.
uhhhhhhh 8y ago
maybe now that would work, but initially tesla wouldn't have succeeded. They reinvented the electric as a cool, sexy, fast and popular vehicle. Without that I imagine many other manufacturers would never have made the changes they're making now for electrics.
auber 8y ago
They used to do that. None of the oems wanted to build more than token, regulation satisfying nothing burgers so Tesla was forced to make their own cars. People don’t appreciate Tesla’s role in pushing Evs forward enough.
smacktoward 8y ago
It's really hard to spend 15 years telling the world that you are going to put a bunch of other companies completely out of business, and then pivot to becoming a supplier to those companies.
quest88 8y ago
Tesla just buys panasonic batteries (https://electrek.co/2018/07/31/tesla-gigafactory-panasonic-battery-cell-production-model-3/ https://electrek.co/2018/07/31/tesla-gigafactory-panasonic-b...). The technology is kinda shit - why distract the driver with a touch screen instead of physical buttons and knobs (those are considered technology too)?. The only thing Tesla has is some form of self driving, and that won't be enough.
- iknowstuff 8y ago
  They manufacture cells WITH Panasonic and they have their unique chemistry, as seen in the more durable cells manufactured for Powerwall/Powerpack. The touchscreen allows for amazing software updates and looks cleaner. The most important functions are on the steering wheel and the - pretty great - voice control available via a press of one of the wheels on the steering wheel.

by yumraj 8y ago

thebeefytaco 8y ago

Didn't Tesla already open source all their patents?

softwaredoug 8y ago
There’s a big difference between a patent and a working product
yumraj 8y ago
There are patents and then there are trade secrets. I would guess that Tesla's trade secrets are equally or a lot more valuable, and perhaps pertain to manufacturing processes, than their patents.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
sangnoir 8y ago
Only if you never sue Tesla for anything - including them infringing your patents

bksenior 8y ago

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your ability should port to "things like it." Seems like Tesla is going to extend itself to death.

pbreit 8y ago
What has Elon done or think he has done that is similar?
notfromhere 8y ago
It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing
- cromwellian 8y ago
  Isn’t that sorta like what Steve Ballmer said about the iPhone, and then laughed?
  - notfromhere 8y ago
    Cars don't have network effects like smartphones do
    - jhayward 8y ago
      People talk to each other about their cars and whether they like them. That's a network effect.
- pmart123 8y ago
  I'd be skeptical about this. The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. Unfortunately, Solar-city and taking on convertible debt vs. equity have shrunk down their runway. Had they not done the related party transaction and issued equity, I think they could ramp production at a slower rate without the quality issues you hear about. I don't think Elon's episodes have helped his case either the last year. An interesting question though is whether there was anyone else in the world who could have created a car company in the 21st century, and gotten it to as far as he has?
  - 8y ago

webXL 8y ago

> to the various car manufacturers Or to Apple/Google. While I'm a big fan, I fail to see how they become a dominant player in the industry, especially when most of their much larger competitors have committed to producing similar cars. Transportation as a service seems like it has more room for growth.

Klathmon 8y ago

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps and mistakes are speed bumps rather than mountains to get over. Sadly I also think they can't afford to slow down, because if they do I really think the other larger car companies will eat their lunch.

yumraj 8y ago
If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around. Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a better word). I think I would love that, especially since (disclaimer: I do not own a Tesla), the Model S and 3 that I've sat in, seem very spartan from a luxury vehicle standpoint. Moreover, to my other point: this will free Tesla to innovate like crazy on battery, charger, motor and drivetrain technology and perhaps attain a monopolistic lead , while in the car business I the competition is beginning to creep up. From a traditional car manufacturer's standpoint, this may allow them to stop spending on battery/drivetrain/superchargers/... technology and focus on making the car shell.
- jfoster 8y ago
  Have you talked to Tesla owners much about this? I think you'll find that they do value the package far beyond the mechanics that move the car. In particular, I think Tesla may be well positioned in terms of autonomy. Although Waymo and Cruise might have a more robust approach, they are taking their time. I see that Tesla is very serious about bringing the benefits of autonomy to market across all their vehicles.
  - dragonwriter 8y ago

ineedasername 8y ago

I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bear on these things. For me the main question of Tesla is whether or not they can lower the cost fast enough to avoid having big manufacturers gobble up the low end of the market first. Volkswagen's MEB platform, for example, is set to come online with about 150,000 vehicles in 2020, a projected range around 300 miles, and cost in the $21,000 area. Will Tesla's still be nicer? Very likely. Will that matter? Not to people looking to spend under $30,000 for the their next car.

SEJeff 8y ago
They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unrivalled and makes the tesla batteries cheaper to manufacturer. There are also patents around several of the chemistry specific things that ensures Tesla will in fact stand alone for some time in these areas. When it comes to battery tech, Tesla handily stands on their own. [1] https://www.inc.com/wanda-thibodeaux/the-inventor-of-lithium-ion-batteries-has-a-new-product-hint-tesla-will-love-it.html https://www.inc.com/wanda-thibodeaux/the-inventor-of-lithium...
- sgift 8y ago
  > Goodenough and his team aren't quite finished with the new battery. They've only created the glass-based anode. But they're working out kinks with the cathode, and soon they'll be able to make some large-scale cells. This seems like one of these sentences which you kind of miss on the first read and many years later when you wonder "what happened to that wonder battery?" "Remember the cathode we thought was almost done? Turns out it wasn't." Until they have produced that thing at scale it is still part of a long list of research products in the battery sector, which may never be available.

zaksoup 8y ago

Tesla tried this with Toyota on the Rav4 EV, for which Tesla provided battery and drivetrain. Toyota decided Tesla was so hard to work with that it was worth ending all future partnerships. Tesla also provided the full battery and Drivetrain for the Mercedes-Benz B-class EV and Daimler ultimately cancelled the project to bring the technology in-house. I don't think the issue is that Tesla is unwilling to be an OEM, but that their customers are unwilling to out-source development of extremely competitive technologies to a relatively volatile supplier. https://insideevs.com/insight-toyota-tesla-partnership-marred-clashes-engineers/ https://insideevs.com/insight-toyota-tesla-partnership-marre... https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340139/bye-bye-baby-b-mercedes-spikes-its-electric-subcompact-eyes-more-mainstream-evs/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340139/bye-bye-baby-b-m...

jmpman 8y ago
The RAV4EV and Mercedes were built as California compliance cars. They’re fantastic vehicles (I own a RAV4EV), and with a bit more range, I’d prefer that over the Model Y. Notice that these were released back in 2012, and almost 7 years later, there isn’t a comparable SUV for less than $75k. Once Toyota produced their required 2600 cars to get sufficient California credits, they ended the program.
- zaksoup 8y ago
  I don't disagree that they're great cars (I tried very hard to find and purchase a b class), but the reporting I linked suggests strongly that both Daimler and Toyota intended to continue the partnership past just the CARB complaince models but ultimately changed their minds. This was not a limited partnership that was always ended to end at 2600 models.
  - jmpman 8y ago
    Maybe it was intended to last longer. The vehicle pricing was up in the $50k+ range, and I think deep discounting was required to move them. Rumor is that Toyota lost many millions. Cars.com allows you to search for the Rav4EV and B-class rather easily. The RAV4EV is going for around $14k these days. It’s a great commuter car, but doesn’t have the distance to make it a very practical solo vehicle. I supplement mine with a huge Suburban.

dragonwriter 8y ago

> I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. Isn't the battery tech, at least in significant part, licensed, non-exclusively, from Panasonic? > I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Possibly, on an expected value basis, but Tesla is being run on a swing for the fences basis not a maximizing expected value basis.

stcredzero 8y ago
Isn't the battery tech, at least in significant part, licensed, non-exclusively, from Panasonic? It's producing the whole battery unit that's the hard part. Toyota gets their automatic transmissions from another company.

uhhhhhhh 8y ago

maybe now that would work, but initially tesla wouldn't have succeeded. They reinvented the electric as a cool, sexy, fast and popular vehicle. Without that I imagine many other manufacturers would never have made the changes they're making now for electrics.

auber 8y ago

They used to do that. None of the oems wanted to build more than token, regulation satisfying nothing burgers so Tesla was forced to make their own cars. People don’t appreciate Tesla’s role in pushing Evs forward enough.

smacktoward 8y ago

It's really hard to spend 15 years telling the world that you are going to put a bunch of other companies completely out of business, and then pivot to becoming a supplier to those companies.

quest88 8y ago

Tesla just buys panasonic batteries (https://electrek.co/2018/07/31/tesla-gigafactory-panasonic-battery-cell-production-model-3/ https://electrek.co/2018/07/31/tesla-gigafactory-panasonic-b...). The technology is kinda shit - why distract the driver with a touch screen instead of physical buttons and knobs (those are considered technology too)?. The only thing Tesla has is some form of self driving, and that won't be enough.

iknowstuff 8y ago
They manufacture cells WITH Panasonic and they have their unique chemistry, as seen in the more durable cells manufactured for Powerwall/Powerpack. The touchscreen allows for amazing software updates and looks cleaner. The most important functions are on the steering wheel and the - pretty great - voice control available via a press of one of the wheels on the steering wheel.