7 ms·

is now a good time to buy? [serious]

by BaconJuice 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
karpodiem 8y ago
Now is a good time to buy put options.
- high_derivative 8y ago
  Is that not technically untrue as this is already priced, with options being very expensive due to high implied volatility now?
  - marvin 8y ago
    You'll know when your options expire ^_^
- mhermher 8y ago
  Better yet, a great time to sell calls. Lots of believers that is gonna shoot back up and to the moon.
  - dragontamer 8y ago
    Except Elon Musk has been prone to make tweets like "$420 Funding Secured", which would ruin your short-call position if it happened at the wrong time. The best move is to not play. There are literally thousands of other companies in the public market that are actually run by decent people. Musk clearly wants to "burn the shorts" and is willing to go to war with anyone who takes the bear bet. That's fine, just don't play the game at all. Buy and sell stocks from a more reputable company.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
sjwright 8y ago
Do you know something the market does not? Because everything the market knows is already priced in to the stock. Don’t think of a share price as speculation, think of it as speculating about other people’s speculations.
jtx22 8y ago
If you believe solar and electric cars are the future, its a good time to buy.
- JshWright 8y ago
  There are _way_ more factors than that. Not the least of which being "do you believe Tesla is the company that is able to deliver those effectively?". All signs currently point to "No".
  - jtx22 7y ago
    You should definitely short the stock.
- brohee 8y ago
  You can totally believe that, and have no faith in Tesla itself. On the high end side I don't see how they will counter the like of Audi, Jaguar, Porsche and Polestar, which come with actually well made cars, a service network that works and actual prestige. On the low end Korean and Chinese brands should slash prices...
  - jtx22 7y ago
    Indeed. You should definitely short the stock.
dragontamer 8y ago
Tesla had to pay back a $920 Million loan this past quarter, and these numbers suggest that Tesla probably lost money in Q1 (30% fewer deliveries). So you're looking at a company that just lost, $1+ Billion in one quarter. Tesla had $3 Billion in cash about half-a-year ago, but that's a LOT of its warchest that just evaporated. Tesla seems to have screwed itself over: the Model Y hype may be destroying the Model 3 demand. The Model 3 is a sedan, and sedans are selling very, very poorly in the USA (across the board: Ford and GM have eradicated their sedan lines). Tesla should have worked on and released the Y first into the lucrative SUV market... but I guess no one can blame them for failing to have a crystal ball. The drop in demand is very worrying for sure. Tesla is supposed to be a growth company, and a 30% drop in deliveries is anything but growth.
mikestew 8y ago
I'll say this as one who has traded a fair amount of TSLA, starting shortly after IPO. I've done well enough with it to have purchased several of their cars (we do not own one, however). I also sold most of what we had a few months back via call options, save 50 shares. With my resume out of the way: if you have to ask on Hacker News whether or not to buy TSLA, then don't. A lot of what drives that price up or down is drama, not financials or technical charting. If you like to buy your stocks based on what the Kardashians are up to this week, maybe pick up 100 shares. But seriously, just stay the hell away. You want to roll dice right now, go buy BA.
InTheArena 8y ago
It's not a good time to buy a stock. The market is pure speculation, which is why you have this phenomena of twitter assholes (TSLAQ) being sure that every bit of bad news is sign that the company is about to go bankrupt, and all of their stock shorts are suddenly going to make them the next Gordon Gekko. Couple that with the fact that Tesla is a really volatile company, none of my money would go there. On the other hand, a company with zero self-driving cars in the hands of consumers is supposedly being values in capital raises at $75 billion, while VW is about to pour $50 billion into their EV efforts. Tesla is way ahead of them in adopted augmented driving, battery chemistry (which is theirs, not Panasonics) and electric drivetrains. In terms of cars, absolutely. The Model 3 SR+ is awesome. I have a MR and love it.

is now a good time to buy? [serious]

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

karpodiem 8y ago

Now is a good time to buy put options.

high_derivative 8y ago
Is that not technically untrue as this is already priced, with options being very expensive due to high implied volatility now?
- marvin 8y ago
  You'll know when your options expire ^_^
mhermher 8y ago
Better yet, a great time to sell calls. Lots of believers that is gonna shoot back up and to the moon.
- dragontamer 8y ago
  Except Elon Musk has been prone to make tweets like "$420 Funding Secured", which would ruin your short-call position if it happened at the wrong time. The best move is to not play. There are literally thousands of other companies in the public market that are actually run by decent people. Musk clearly wants to "burn the shorts" and is willing to go to war with anyone who takes the bear bet. That's fine, just don't play the game at all. Buy and sell stocks from a more reputable company.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

sjwright 8y ago

Do you know something the market does not? Because everything the market knows is already priced in to the stock. Don’t think of a share price as speculation, think of it as speculating about other people’s speculations.

jtx22 8y ago

If you believe solar and electric cars are the future, its a good time to buy.

JshWright 8y ago
There are _way_ more factors than that. Not the least of which being "do you believe Tesla is the company that is able to deliver those effectively?". All signs currently point to "No".
- jtx22 7y ago
  You should definitely short the stock.
brohee 8y ago
You can totally believe that, and have no faith in Tesla itself. On the high end side I don't see how they will counter the like of Audi, Jaguar, Porsche and Polestar, which come with actually well made cars, a service network that works and actual prestige. On the low end Korean and Chinese brands should slash prices...
- jtx22 7y ago
  Indeed. You should definitely short the stock.

dragontamer 8y ago

Tesla had to pay back a $920 Million loan this past quarter, and these numbers suggest that Tesla probably lost money in Q1 (30% fewer deliveries). So you're looking at a company that just lost, $1+ Billion in one quarter. Tesla had $3 Billion in cash about half-a-year ago, but that's a LOT of its warchest that just evaporated. Tesla seems to have screwed itself over: the Model Y hype may be destroying the Model 3 demand. The Model 3 is a sedan, and sedans are selling very, very poorly in the USA (across the board: Ford and GM have eradicated their sedan lines). Tesla should have worked on and released the Y first into the lucrative SUV market... but I guess no one can blame them for failing to have a crystal ball. The drop in demand is very worrying for sure. Tesla is supposed to be a growth company, and a 30% drop in deliveries is anything but growth.

mikestew 8y ago

I'll say this as one who has traded a fair amount of TSLA, starting shortly after IPO. I've done well enough with it to have purchased several of their cars (we do not own one, however). I also sold most of what we had a few months back via call options, save 50 shares. With my resume out of the way: if you have to ask on Hacker News whether or not to buy TSLA, then don't. A lot of what drives that price up or down is drama, not financials or technical charting. If you like to buy your stocks based on what the Kardashians are up to this week, maybe pick up 100 shares. But seriously, just stay the hell away. You want to roll dice right now, go buy BA.

InTheArena 8y ago

It's not a good time to buy a stock. The market is pure speculation, which is why you have this phenomena of twitter assholes (TSLAQ) being sure that every bit of bad news is sign that the company is about to go bankrupt, and all of their stock shorts are suddenly going to make them the next Gordon Gekko. Couple that with the fact that Tesla is a really volatile company, none of my money would go there. On the other hand, a company with zero self-driving cars in the hands of consumers is supposedly being values in capital raises at $75 billion, while VW is about to pour $50 billion into their EV efforts. Tesla is way ahead of them in adopted augmented driving, battery chemistry (which is theirs, not Panasonics) and electric drivetrains. In terms of cars, absolutely. The Model 3 SR+ is awesome. I have a MR and love it.