11 ms·

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimate

Apparently, they have 10,000 cars in transit to customers right now as part of their international roll-out. Still came in worse than the worst analyst estimates. US deliveries of the M3 also tanked in January and February after a record December. March saw an uptick, but it's still far below the December number. But this has likely to do with the end of the subsidies.

honopu 8y ago
Well, they can only make so many cars. If 10000 are in transit, then that's 10000 they can't book as sold. It is interesting though that they can't count these as sales, as many companies do many things with deferring sales, I would think if they are in transit, they are (sold). If they are sending 10k cars there without them actually being sold, that would be something else entirely. Perhaps general acceptable accounting rules don't allow for booking sales before delivery, but I'd find that crazy to be the case.
- jsight 8y ago
  From the press release (at: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla...): "We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle." It sounds like it is count as sold, but not delivered. Production was 77100 which leaves about 3500 cars as both unsold and undelivered. That is only about half a week of production, but at the same time it implies softness in overall demand compared to the past.
sschueller 8y ago
Tesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3] At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA [3] https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646 https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646
- Reason077 8y ago
  "Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?" Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.
  - sschueller 8y ago
    But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.
    - Reason077 8y ago
      While these bad experiences reflect poorly on Tesla and shouldn't happen, I don't think they are normal. It seems like most people are not waiting very long in Europe and have a smooth delivery experience. Norwegian YouTuber Bjorn Nyland ordered a performance Model 3 and got it in 8 days. (The cars stored in the parking lot you linked to are clearly used inventory: probably trade-ins. Not new Model 3s.)
      - youngtaff 8y ago
        Repairs in Europe seem a mess - a friend had to wait months for a replacement windscreen
    - leesec 8y ago
      Remember how the last U.S. car company to make it to mass production was over 100 years ago? Scaling up cars is really, really hard. It is not software.
      - jdhn 8y ago
        While scaling up is hard, it's not like the expertise to scale up doesn't exist. The auto industry is pretty established, and I'm sure that there are companies and/or consultants that could help Tesla out.
gizmo 8y ago
The analyist with the best track record (and it isn't even close) is @coverdrive12 on twitter and he called 65,000 optimistic yesterday. This big miss doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has followed those who track the VINs, shipping data, and activity at the Tesla stores. I should also point out that Musk's reiterated guidance of 500,000 cars this year is absolutely absurd at this point.
- bryanlarsen 8y ago
  The reiterated guidance was for 360,000 - 400,000 cars. Tesla still doesn't want to sell $35K 3's, they've still got huge delays on those. And of course there's soft demand for $55K 3's, $85K S's and $100K X's in a market that includes $35K 3's. It's the mix of $35K 3's they sell that indicates demand while they're production constrained, and that number is still essentially zero, so I'm still confident they can sell as many 3's as they can build this year. The question is how many of those cars will be the $35K 3, and if they can make any profit on a mix that includes a large number of $35K 3's.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - Shivetya 8y ago
    disclaimer, I own a TM3 LR With regards to the 35k TM3, the SR+ is such a superior deal that its a wonder they can make money on it. However for those in the market for any car, if less an five percent difference is make or break you are already in the wrong price range. What is interesting that the Bolt, Soul, Niro, and Kona, are all priced the same or higher than a SR with models exceeding even the SR+. I think Tesla should have just taken the PR hit and dropped the SR for the SR+. Still Tesla's problem may actually be an industry problem, as in EV enthusiasm is not near as high as many claim it to be and the market will quickly saturate for the lower end, as in 50k and below.
    - Tempest1981 8y ago
      I found this page to help decode the acronym overload: https://insideevs.com/teslas-confusing-price-changes-adjustment-chart/ https://insideevs.com/teslas-confusing-price-changes-adjustm...

honopu 8y ago

Well, they can only make so many cars. If 10000 are in transit, then that's 10000 they can't book as sold. It is interesting though that they can't count these as sales, as many companies do many things with deferring sales, I would think if they are in transit, they are (sold). If they are sending 10k cars there without them actually being sold, that would be something else entirely. Perhaps general acceptable accounting rules don't allow for booking sales before delivery, but I'd find that crazy to be the case.

jsight 8y ago
From the press release (at: http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla...): "We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle." It sounds like it is count as sold, but not delivered. Production was 77100 which leaves about 3500 cars as both unsold and undelivered. That is only about half a week of production, but at the same time it implies softness in overall demand compared to the past.

sschueller 8y ago

Tesla appears to have huge logistical issues in Europe and else where. From the mess with the delivery of Rich's [1] Model X or one German Youtubers[2] Model 3. Here is a video of Tesla's pilling up in a mall parking garage [3] At this rate the company will not exist very long even if they make the best car. Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when others do not have these issues? Who is in charge? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS5Q6iiQRgA [3] https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646 https://twitter.com/gupamf/status/1113283728640368646

Reason077 8y ago
"Why is Tesla so incompetent when it comes to logistics when other do not have these issues?" Rapid expansion? I can't think of another car company doing nearly 400% year-on-year sales growth like Tesla has.
- sschueller 8y ago
  But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.
  - Reason077 8y ago
    While these bad experiences reflect poorly on Tesla and shouldn't happen, I don't think they are normal. It seems like most people are not waiting very long in Europe and have a smooth delivery experience. Norwegian YouTuber Bjorn Nyland ordered a performance Model 3 and got it in 8 days. (The cars stored in the parking lot you linked to are clearly used inventory: probably trade-ins. Not new Model 3s.)
    - youngtaff 8y ago
      Repairs in Europe seem a mess - a friend had to wait months for a replacement windscreen
  - leesec 8y ago
    Remember how the last U.S. car company to make it to mass production was over 100 years ago? Scaling up cars is really, really hard. It is not software.
    - jdhn 8y ago
      While scaling up is hard, it's not like the expertise to scale up doesn't exist. The auto industry is pretty established, and I'm sure that there are companies and/or consultants that could help Tesla out.

gizmo 8y ago

The analyist with the best track record (and it isn't even close) is @coverdrive12 on twitter and he called 65,000 optimistic yesterday. This big miss doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has followed those who track the VINs, shipping data, and activity at the Tesla stores. I should also point out that Musk's reiterated guidance of 500,000 cars this year is absolutely absurd at this point.

bryanlarsen 8y ago
The reiterated guidance was for 360,000 - 400,000 cars. Tesla still doesn't want to sell $35K 3's, they've still got huge delays on those. And of course there's soft demand for $55K 3's, $85K S's and $100K X's in a market that includes $35K 3's. It's the mix of $35K 3's they sell that indicates demand while they're production constrained, and that number is still essentially zero, so I'm still confident they can sell as many 3's as they can build this year. The question is how many of those cars will be the $35K 3, and if they can make any profit on a mix that includes a large number of $35K 3's.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Shivetya 8y ago
  disclaimer, I own a TM3 LR With regards to the 35k TM3, the SR+ is such a superior deal that its a wonder they can make money on it. However for those in the market for any car, if less an five percent difference is make or break you are already in the wrong price range. What is interesting that the Bolt, Soul, Niro, and Kona, are all priced the same or higher than a SR with models exceeding even the SR+. I think Tesla should have just taken the PR hit and dropped the SR for the SR+. Still Tesla's problem may actually be an industry problem, as in EV enthusiasm is not near as high as many claim it to be and the market will quickly saturate for the lower end, as in 50k and below.
  - Tempest1981 8y ago
    I found this page to help decode the acronym overload: https://insideevs.com/teslas-confusing-price-changes-adjustment-chart/ https://insideevs.com/teslas-confusing-price-changes-adjustm...