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The UN's population projections have historically been very accurate. They have also consistently shown that the better educated and developed a country is, the
by mikorym 8y ago
The UN's population projections have historically been very accurate. They have also consistently shown that the better educated and developed a country is, the quicker its population stabilises.
- titzer 8y agoI'm not sure what you are referring to, because here (https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/ https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/) I see 3 models, a high, medium, and low, and they diverge hugely by 2100.
- mikorym 8y agoThey have outlier models, but look at the probabilities associated with them (should be >90%, i.e., <10% probability for those lines). A better statement on my behalf would have been that their probabilistic distributions have been historically very accurate. They are also updated very diligently to account for new phenomena. I don't work for the UN, but they take population growth very seriously.
- barry-cotter 8y agoThe UN has underpredicted African population growth for decades and they have been predicting that low fertility populations like East Asians will bounce back to replacement too. Still hasn’t happened. Getting things wrong over and over again does not qualify as an accurate prediction. Getting things wrong, over and over again, the same way each time is embarrassing.
- mikorym 8y agoNot sure what you are specifically referring to. The UN says [1] that "Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. Between 2017 and 2050, the populations of 26 African countries are projected to expand to at least double their current size." [1] https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world...