4 ms·

> To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. This is not at all obvious to this casual

> To me as a casual observer it has always been obvious that the price of energy over the long term is going to zero. This is not at all obvious to this casual observer. Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate. We can never produce more energy than the earth radiates away, for obvious reason. With current trajectories we will release more energy than earth radiates away in less than 200 years. I'm not sure how the price of a limited resource can go to zero, but I'm also not very well versed in economics.

nostrademons 8y ago
Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate only because Earth's temperature is approximately constant. Actual black-body radiation is governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann law [1], and is proportional to temperature^4. A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, which then serves to moderate the temperature. In practice, the total energy consumption of the Earth is bounded by the amount of solar energy that falls on the earth, which is about 100,000 times greater than current total world energy consumption. For what civilizations might look like that exceed that, check out the Kardashev scale [2], which classifies civilizations by the size of the astronomical object whose energy they harness. Type 1 civilizations harness a planet, Type 2 harness a star, Type 3 harness a galaxy. We're a lowly Type 0 civilization, which means that we have not yet attained the technology needed to make full use out of all of our planet's resources. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_body#Radiative_cooling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_body#Radiative_cooling [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
- GistNoesis 8y ago
  >A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, The temperature in the formula is given in Kelvins, so for all practical purposes (300K less than 10°K variation), the 4th power means every degree increase the amount of energy radiated by ~1.3%
- chvid 8y ago
  As I see it price is driven by our ability to consume energy and our ability to produce. The first part will peter out (you can only use so much heating, only so much transport) whereas the second part continues to grow long before we hit any sort of fundamental limit.

nostrademons 8y ago

Earth radiates heat away at a constant rate only because Earth's temperature is approximately constant. Actual black-body radiation is governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann law [1], and is proportional to temperature^4. A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, which then serves to moderate the temperature. In practice, the total energy consumption of the Earth is bounded by the amount of solar energy that falls on the earth, which is about 100,000 times greater than current total world energy consumption. For what civilizations might look like that exceed that, check out the Kardashev scale [2], which classifies civilizations by the size of the astronomical object whose energy they harness. Type 1 civilizations harness a planet, Type 2 harness a star, Type 3 harness a galaxy. We're a lowly Type 0 civilization, which means that we have not yet attained the technology needed to make full use out of all of our planet's resources. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_body#Radiative_cooling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_body#Radiative_cooling [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

GistNoesis 8y ago
>A small increase in temperature significantly increases the amount of energy radiated, The temperature in the formula is given in Kelvins, so for all practical purposes (300K less than 10°K variation), the 4th power means every degree increase the amount of energy radiated by ~1.3%
chvid 8y ago
As I see it price is driven by our ability to consume energy and our ability to produce. The first part will peter out (you can only use so much heating, only so much transport) whereas the second part continues to grow long before we hit any sort of fundamental limit.