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- Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful - The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car marke

- Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful - The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market - Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening

Arnt 8y ago
Bosch and about six other manufacturers of car parts disagree with you and expect sharply reduced demand for ICE-specific car parts.
- max_wen 8y ago
  I agree that at least 6 manufacturers of ICE-car parts in the EU and USA will be seeing reduced demand in the future
  - Arnt 8y ago
    Maybe I should have put that differently. Maybe I should have added "AFAIK zero ICE parts manufacturers have issued forecasts of increased demand".
AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful That is up from <1% five years ago, in a market where demand spurs demand by increasing availability of charging points etc. Meanwhile the EV market is currently production capacity constrained and multiple companies are expanding production capacity. I doubt we're going to be at 100% electric cars in ten years but I would not be surprised if it was somewhere in the mid double digits by then. And by that point it becomes a lot easier to target ICE cars with legislation because there is a proven viable alternative. > The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market Any given factor is more than offset by the growth in the overall car market. But you add them all together. > Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening China has a slate of domestic electric car companies and it's exactly their style to pass legislation that favors domestic companies over foreign competitors. Climate change provides them a really good justification to do that here. And carbon taxes generate revenue, which makes it easy to make them revenue neutral. Use the money to lower other taxes or fund a UBI. This knocks out the "harms the poor/developing countries" argument because the cost becomes only the cost difference between fossil fuels and alternatives, which is rapidly approaching zero. Moreover, most of the current oil demand comes from the US and Europe. If either of them, much less both, passed relevant legislation then not only would their own demand fall off, the increased economies of scale and network effects that would spur in alternatives would also make them more cost effective in countries without any such legislation.
wcarron 8y ago
60% of new cars sold in Norway recently were EVs. That's a start, and a good one at that. I'd be highly doubtful that EVs won't continue to gain steam over the next decade, as VW, Porsche, Audi, Volvo, Ford, GM, and Toyota continue to expand EV production lines and models.

Arnt 8y ago

Bosch and about six other manufacturers of car parts disagree with you and expect sharply reduced demand for ICE-specific car parts.

max_wen 8y ago
I agree that at least 6 manufacturers of ICE-car parts in the EU and USA will be seeing reduced demand in the future
- Arnt 8y ago
  Maybe I should have put that differently. Maybe I should have added "AFAIK zero ICE parts manufacturers have issued forecasts of increased demand".

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> Electric cars are still less than 5% of new car market. Hardly impactful That is up from <1% five years ago, in a market where demand spurs demand by increasing availability of charging points etc. Meanwhile the EV market is currently production capacity constrained and multiple companies are expanding production capacity. I doubt we're going to be at 100% electric cars in ten years but I would not be surprised if it was somewhere in the mid double digits by then. And by that point it becomes a lot easier to target ICE cars with legislation because there is a proven viable alternative. > The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market Any given factor is more than offset by the growth in the overall car market. But you add them all together. > Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening China has a slate of domestic electric car companies and it's exactly their style to pass legislation that favors domestic companies over foreign competitors. Climate change provides them a really good justification to do that here. And carbon taxes generate revenue, which makes it easy to make them revenue neutral. Use the money to lower other taxes or fund a UBI. This knocks out the "harms the poor/developing countries" argument because the cost becomes only the cost difference between fossil fuels and alternatives, which is rapidly approaching zero. Moreover, most of the current oil demand comes from the US and Europe. If either of them, much less both, passed relevant legislation then not only would their own demand fall off, the increased economies of scale and network effects that would spur in alternatives would also make them more cost effective in countries without any such legislation.

wcarron 8y ago

60% of new cars sold in Norway recently were EVs. That's a start, and a good one at that. I'd be highly doubtful that EVs won't continue to gain steam over the next decade, as VW, Porsche, Audi, Volvo, Ford, GM, and Toyota continue to expand EV production lines and models.