You claim the author is cherry-picking, and then you say this: > The marginal cost for natural gas is roughly ~1.8 cents/kWh today (including O&M) I am assumi

You claim the author is cherry-picking, and then you say this: > The marginal cost for natural gas is roughly ~1.8 cents/kWh today (including O&M) I am assuming you worked this out using the Henry Hub prices of circa $2.50/mmscf - yes? But hardly any gas consumers pay these prices, even in the US. In Florida and New York, for example, the prices are more like $5.00/mmscf, and can be even higher. And in the rest of the world - which accounts for the vast majority of electricity production - the prices are far higher still, commonly around $10/mmscf, today. >solar would have to be ~$0.50/W ... ... that is ~5 doublings from today Not really sure what $0.50/W means here - is it $0.50 CAPEX per "peak watt"? If so: The cost of utility scale solar power plants today is around $1.00/peak watt, so with your assumption of a 20% learning curve it will only take 3 doublings to reach that.