> Finally, there will in fact be a Phase 4 of renewables, when their penetration has grown so high that they become limited by headwinds of their own creation:

> Finally, there will in fact be a Phase 4 of renewables, when their penetration has grown so high that they become limited by headwinds of their own creation: Value deflation I hold the opinion that this "Phase 4" - or a relative slowdown in momentum of renewables is unlikely to ever occur for a sustained period of time (i.e. more than 2-5 years). Rather, I view value deflation as more of a resistance or "constant headwind" that, you could argue we even have today. There are a few reasons I hold the opinion that this "Phase" will never actually become a phase: - On the value deflation curve, where "energy" at certain times of day decreases in value as more solar is installed in a particular market that "can't be used" - batteries (or any kind of dispatchable energy storage) results in a "shifting up" of the curve. If for example a market had enough dispatchable energy storage to meet 10% of a grid's needs, energy deflation dynamics only start to kick in once demand exceeds the energy that can be stored (similar to the situation we have today) - Value deflation (or moments where there is zero cost energy, negative electricity prices etc) is a market signal for "here is some free energy" or "I will pay you to take this off my hands". If you believe in markets, and innovations that emerge to capture value - I see technologies and businesses in due time stepping in place to take advantage of this underutilized value. We as humans are pretty good at finding ways to consume and use energy - particularly if it is nearly free. Large volumes of "low cost" energy could be used in multitudes of applications - think: desalination of large volumes of water, cleaning of water via reverse osmosis, hydrogen production for transportation or fertilizer production, operating most industrial applications etc. - Given the above, and general political and market pressures developing over time to electrify and transition all uses of energy to become carbon free (industrial, transportation, etc) to lower carbon sources, I think you are doing the analysis injustice if you are only looking at the electricity sector (assuming you are looking on the decades timescale, which this author is). Energy is energy and can be transformed from one form to the other. If it is cheap enough in one form, that transformation can in situations become economical. Regardless, I think it is a very exciting time and it will be interesting to see how things unfold. I am aware that there is a sizeable camp of analysts/experts out there that strongly believe in the value deflation risk - but I am a little more optimistic than most regarding the power of markets and human ingenuity. For anyone interested in the topic, I encourage you to do research on the value deflation of solar/wind.