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> despite the fact that virtually none of them have ever been in a room where the real meaningful foreign policy decisions are made I always liked this quote a

> despite the fact that virtually none of them have ever been in a room where the real meaningful foreign policy decisions are made I always liked this quote about policymaking: "This is the most pervasive of of all Washington legends: that politicians in Washington are ceaselessly, ruthlessly, effectively scheming. That everything that happens fits into somebody’s plan. It doesn’t. Maybe it started out with a scheme, but soon enough everyone is, at best, reacting, and at worst, failing to react, and always, always they're doing it with less information than they need. That's been a key lesson I’ve learned working as a reporter and political observer in Washington: No one can carry out complicated plans. All parties and groups are fractious and bumbling. But everyone always thinks everyone else is efficiently and ruthlessly implementing long-term schemes."

luckylion 8y ago
That might well be true, but there are long-term plans, not everything is reactive. The US global hegemony project for example was a long term strategy that was planned and decided upon. Local implementations may be reactions to local circumstances, but it's not like everybody was busy playing cards and they accidentally stumbled into building an empire. I'm sure it's not a small circle of shadowy people that only meet at 2am and require a heavily sedated black cat for each participant, but there are plans and decisions, and actions carried out that commit the country to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars and military involvement measured in decades. Those aren't "oh gosh, what's this now? well, put some duct tape on it, I suppose" reactions.
- brownbat 8y ago
  You're right that some decisions put things on a trajectory that can have massive ramifications for decades. I am still a bit skeptical of anyone's ability to project very far out. Even a decision to go to war is full of uncertainty. Iraq I was days, Iraq II was decades. A general can never promise you it will come out one of those ways or the other. Maybe I'm wrong though. It'd at least be nice to imagine someone has a plan and that it's not all just organic chaos. "The Thick of It" does a good job explaining my side though -- it almost feels like a documentary for policy circles. The environment at that level is unbelievably frenetic. Getting anything done with intention is a near miracle. But you're probably right that sometimes, at least on rare occasions, important people are able to clear off enough space to make important things happen that are long lasting with intention. I just think it's the exception, not the rule.

luckylion 8y ago

That might well be true, but there are long-term plans, not everything is reactive. The US global hegemony project for example was a long term strategy that was planned and decided upon. Local implementations may be reactions to local circumstances, but it's not like everybody was busy playing cards and they accidentally stumbled into building an empire. I'm sure it's not a small circle of shadowy people that only meet at 2am and require a heavily sedated black cat for each participant, but there are plans and decisions, and actions carried out that commit the country to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars and military involvement measured in decades. Those aren't "oh gosh, what's this now? well, put some duct tape on it, I suppose" reactions.

brownbat 8y ago
You're right that some decisions put things on a trajectory that can have massive ramifications for decades. I am still a bit skeptical of anyone's ability to project very far out. Even a decision to go to war is full of uncertainty. Iraq I was days, Iraq II was decades. A general can never promise you it will come out one of those ways or the other. Maybe I'm wrong though. It'd at least be nice to imagine someone has a plan and that it's not all just organic chaos. "The Thick of It" does a good job explaining my side though -- it almost feels like a documentary for policy circles. The environment at that level is unbelievably frenetic. Getting anything done with intention is a near miracle. But you're probably right that sometimes, at least on rare occasions, important people are able to clear off enough space to make important things happen that are long lasting with intention. I just think it's the exception, not the rule.