Well, nuclear weapons have been around for 74 years, and there's been either zero or one nuclear war, depending on your definition. So ~1% and ~1‰ chance per an

Well, nuclear weapons have been around for 74 years, and there's been either zero or one nuclear war, depending on your definition. So ~1% and ~1‰ chance per annum are both supported by the data; 1% is more likely if you're in the "one" camp and 1‰ if you're in the "zero" camp. But much more importantly, we've all been discounting the cooling effects of nuclear winter.