5 ms·
> possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2% If it were that high, we'd likely have had one by now. I think it's an order of magnitude lower than
by ams6110 8y ago
> possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2%
If it were that high, we'd likely have had one by now. I think it's an order of magnitude lower than that.
- i_am_proteus 8y agoWell, nuclear weapons have been around for 74 years, and there's been either zero or one nuclear war, depending on your definition. So ~1% and ~1‰ chance per annum are both supported by the data; 1% is more likely if you're in the "one" camp and 1‰ if you're in the "zero" camp. But much more importantly, we've all been discounting the cooling effects of nuclear winter.
- vkou 8y agoThis is the poster child for survivorship - in its most literal sense - bias.