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Nuclear war may or may not be the "most likely" kind of war, but it's still, as the person you're responding to said, "relatively unlikely." (I would say it's

Nuclear war may or may not be the "most likely" kind of war, but it's still, as the person you're responding to said, "relatively unlikely." (I would say it's very unlikely.)

vkou 8y ago
Given how many close calls we have had, and given how there's thousands of nuclear weapons, pointed at eachother, on hairtrigger alert, and given that a number of countries allow themselves to use nuclear weapons in a first-strike scenario, I strongly feel that the possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2%. 1. The US and Russia are currently doing their best to antagonize eachother. 2. The US is currently doing its best to extract itself from the tyrrany of MAD (By building ICBM defenses.) [1] If MAD breaks down, the whole house of cards that justifies the existence of nuclear weapons as a guarantor of peace collapses. 3. The Russians have an automated retaliatory-strike system - should they be attacked, it will end the world. Hopefully, there aren't any bugs with it. (But knowing how software projects go, of course there are bugs with it.) [2] 4. The decision to launch, once made by either country's leadership, cannot be second-guessed by saner subordinates. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_complex_in_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand
- WaltPurvis 8y ago
  I mean, I'm not trying to be rude, but it doesn't really matter what you "strongly feel" -- your estimate of 1-2% is just a wild guess. I "strongly feel" it's not very likely, whatever very and likely mean, so there.
- ams6110 8y ago
  > possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2% If it were that high, we'd likely have had one by now. I think it's an order of magnitude lower than that.
  - i_am_proteus 8y ago
    Well, nuclear weapons have been around for 74 years, and there's been either zero or one nuclear war, depending on your definition. So ~1% and ~1‰ chance per annum are both supported by the data; 1% is more likely if you're in the "one" camp and 1‰ if you're in the "zero" camp. But much more importantly, we've all been discounting the cooling effects of nuclear winter.
  - vkou 8y ago
    This is the poster child for survivorship - in its most literal sense - bias.

Nuclear war may or may not be the "most likely" kind of war, but it's still, as the person you're responding to said, "relatively unlikely." (I would say it's very unlikely.)

vkou 8y ago

Given how many close calls we have had, and given how there's thousands of nuclear weapons, pointed at eachother, on hairtrigger alert, and given that a number of countries allow themselves to use nuclear weapons in a first-strike scenario, I strongly feel that the possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2%. 1. The US and Russia are currently doing their best to antagonize eachother. 2. The US is currently doing its best to extract itself from the tyrrany of MAD (By building ICBM defenses.) [1] If MAD breaks down, the whole house of cards that justifies the existence of nuclear weapons as a guarantor of peace collapses. 3. The Russians have an automated retaliatory-strike system - should they be attacked, it will end the world. Hopefully, there aren't any bugs with it. (But knowing how software projects go, of course there are bugs with it.) [2] 4. The decision to launch, once made by either country's leadership, cannot be second-guessed by saner subordinates. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_complex_in_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand

WaltPurvis 8y ago
I mean, I'm not trying to be rude, but it doesn't really matter what you "strongly feel" -- your estimate of 1-2% is just a wild guess. I "strongly feel" it's not very likely, whatever very and likely mean, so there.
ams6110 8y ago
> possibility of a nuclear war in any given year is ~1-2% If it were that high, we'd likely have had one by now. I think it's an order of magnitude lower than that.
- i_am_proteus 8y ago
  Well, nuclear weapons have been around for 74 years, and there's been either zero or one nuclear war, depending on your definition. So ~1% and ~1‰ chance per annum are both supported by the data; 1% is more likely if you're in the "one" camp and 1‰ if you're in the "zero" camp. But much more importantly, we've all been discounting the cooling effects of nuclear winter.
- vkou 8y ago
  This is the poster child for survivorship - in its most literal sense - bias.