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> Isolation just doesn't work though, as I pointed out it's made zero difference to North Korea's behaviour and China was doing all the same things back when it
by ardy42 8y ago
> Isolation just doesn't work though, as I pointed out it's made zero difference to North Korea's behaviour and China was doing all the same things back when it was isolated.
> I'm not saying that's necessarily true, but it's plausible. I can see a case for symbolic sanctions though, something that's eye-catching but not necessarily economically impactful, as a way to draw attention to the issue within China.
Except my understanding is that the modern PRC regime has staked its legitimacy on increasing living standards and economic development, since they de facto abandoned Communism. The regime itself fears an economic slowdown could loosen its grip on power.
So, relatively onerous economy-slowing sanctions tied to demands for liberalization [1] may actually work pretty well, forcing the authoritarians to pick their poison.
[1] e.g. make things like opening up the great firewall a condition for lowering tariffs/loosening embargoes.
- simonh 8y agoIf there is an economic slowdown and it does lead to challenges to the legitimacy of Communist rule, I think we'll find their source of legitimacy switches to the guns and jackboots variety PDQ. Honestly, is there any example ever where economic sanctions have forced a government to become less authoritarian?
- CharlesColeman 8y ago> Honestly, is there any example ever where economic sanctions have forced a government to become less authoritarian? Arguably the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union. If they had been integrated into the Western economic system on favorable terms [1], material conditions there may not have been as bad and may not have fell in the late 80s/early 90s. [1] Such as being allowed to buy things on credit or buy advanced technology. IIRC, the Soviets were only allowed to trade with hard currency, and they were forbidden from buying most of the things they actually wanted.
- FabHK 8y agoSouth Africa's apartheid regime could also be cited as an example of sanctions and international isolation making a difference.
- spacehunt 8y agoChina's economic growth is already slowing. Isolating them now just gives them a convenient excuse, "look the Americans really want us to remain poor".