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Most people look at economies as an extension of supply-demand curves in a Newtonian-esque model where one ball hits the next, transfers momentum (elastically o
by areoform 8y ago
Most people look at economies as an extension of supply-demand curves in a Newtonian-esque model where one ball hits the next, transfers momentum (elastically or otherwise) and so forth. Everything is down to a great chain of causality that creates a nexus of forces. Consequently, "fixing" things in this model means more of Force X over Y. Or, applying Lever A to Spot Z to induce Force P. The force or lever can be regulations, deregulation, taxation, tax cuts, interest rate changes, jailing bankers... And people may come at it from different ideologies, but the Newtonian mental model remains. Everyone repeats ad infinitum if only we quantized and applied X or Y then clearly such and such outcome will occur. And this technique very rarely works out.
It might help us stave off a great amount of unrest if we shift this frame of reference. A new perspective and a new way of doing things where we view our economies as ecosystems or networks might clarify why these changes are occurring. For example, we can look at excessive economic inequality and understand why it is bad by looking at natural ecosystems and how they are a closed loop.
For e.g. Consumers are like plankton. They are the injection of biomass (money) into the system that ensures money changes hands when they buy goods and services. A single entity, no matter how rich, cannot provide equivalent mass to the greater ecosystem than a large set of consumers. Or, in other words, a billionaire requires only so many pairs of sunglasses and Netflix subscriptions. Ergo, a broad base of wealth where people can afford the products around them is essential for a capitalistic ecosystem to function, as these plankton keep feeding entities higher up in the food chain through an accumulation effect.
For whatever reason, just like we have decimated our natural environment, we have also decimated our economic ecosystem. The number of entities with high purchasing power is rapidly decreasing, and this signals a significant problem for the future of the ecosystem. And it also suggests how automation can end up eating itself economically unless we institute measures - artificial or otherwise - that inject capital back into the building blocks of the economy.
I suspect that as computing gets better, we will eventually create models that will make the current economic debates and models we have obsolete. Our arguments over taxation, immigration, regulation, reform etc. will seem quite quaint to people in the future if we manage to make this transition and if we can help policymakers and thinking individuals see economies in real-time, and simulate outcomes of individual, highly variable, irrational agents at unprecedented scales.
But we're not there yet. But we could be. We can fix this. And we will. I am sure of that because brilliant people are working on this problem and eventually, we'll get it right.
I hold out hope for a better future no matter how bad this news gets and I remember that we're in a state of flux and things always appear darker in these times.