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I wouldn't make any bets about what the US would do, sadly. I get the sense that the DUP and most people pushing for no deal actively want to tear up the Good
by joveian 8y ago
I wouldn't make any bets about what the US would do, sadly. I get the sense that the DUP and most people pushing for no deal actively want to tear up the Good Friday agreement (and blame the EU, even if that makes no sense).
I think this issue leads people to overestimate how much support the EU is giving to Ireland. How much they will support Ireland is still to be seen, but for now it seems to be more like "wait, agreeing to do what you already agreed to do is supposed to be the easy part; how can we negotiate with these people?"
IMO, the updated flowchart is way too optimistic. I don't see any reason to suspect parliament won't keep doing what it has been doing, either nothing in particular and crashing out or, more likely IMO, finding a consensus around an impossible plan, crashing out, and blaming the EU for not accepting it. If they were actually going to do anything different the time for that seems to have come and gone a long time ago. "Revoke article 50 if we can't come up with a plan" went down to a huge defeat Thursday as it has previously.
Edit: Looks like I should have checked the news first, sounds like there may actually be a general election. Edit2: Maybe not as clear as the headlines suggest.