4 ms·

Isn't Monday too late? Doesn't the agreement with the EU stipulate that there needs to have been some real progress by today to justify extending until May 22,

Isn't Monday too late? Doesn't the agreement with the EU stipulate that there needs to have been some real progress by today to justify extending until May 22, and if no real progress occurs by today, no deal Brexit occurs April 12?

redcalx 8y ago
The April 12th deadline is conditional on the PMs deal, if that doesn't go through then May 22nd is the current date at which no deal exit will occur if nothing else happens, i.e. that's the current letter of the law. So the vote(s) on Monday are about finding an alternative to no deal before May 22nd. Even if they agree on an option, the EU can still refuse and stick with no deal on the 22nd. -- Edit: See comments below - I got the dates wrong.
- orra 8y ago
  You have it backwards. With a deal, the deadline is May, allowing time for some of the necessary domestic legislation.
  - redcalx 8y ago
    noted, thanks.
    - orra 8y ago
      No worries. It is incredibly easy to get confused. As you know, the backdrop is MPs spouting nonsense, who are not held to account effectively by domestic media.
  - NikkiA 8y ago
    Also the April 12th deadline gives some time for EU elections to be arranged in the UK, which will be a necessity of any delay now.
- isostatic 8y ago
  Note: I use the word deal to mean the withdrawal agreement, which is an agreement on how we leave, not on the future direction. Deadlines April 12 -- if mays deal has passed, extended to May 22 to allow domestic legislation to be passed to implement the deal If not passed by then, then uk leaves with no deal However May's government can ask for an extension at any point up until April 12th. This extension will rely on the UK participating in the EU elections. Those elections can be held if announced by or on April 12th -- there's a reason it's that day and not April 3rd or 19th. It's almost certain we'll be looking at a long delay, and either a referendum or general election
iainmerrick 8y ago
That’s almost it, but there’s one extra point. If the deal isn’t passed today, the April 12th deadline is for the UK to come up with a new suggestion. If the deal fails, the UK could request a longer extension, or even revoke article 50. The EU has strongly signaled that they’d be open to adjusting the political declaration in favour of a customs union, for example. If the UK were to vote for that early next week, it could in principle be agreed on both sides fairly quickly. The main EU requirement is that to avoid a no-deal exit on April 12, the UK has to actually do something different, not simply ask for more time. If the UK requested time for a general election or a second referendum, that would probably be accepted by the EU (although it’s not guaranteed).

redcalx 8y ago

The April 12th deadline is conditional on the PMs deal, if that doesn't go through then May 22nd is the current date at which no deal exit will occur if nothing else happens, i.e. that's the current letter of the law. So the vote(s) on Monday are about finding an alternative to no deal before May 22nd. Even if they agree on an option, the EU can still refuse and stick with no deal on the 22nd. -- Edit: See comments below - I got the dates wrong.

orra 8y ago
You have it backwards. With a deal, the deadline is May, allowing time for some of the necessary domestic legislation.
- redcalx 8y ago
  noted, thanks.
  - orra 8y ago
    No worries. It is incredibly easy to get confused. As you know, the backdrop is MPs spouting nonsense, who are not held to account effectively by domestic media.
- NikkiA 8y ago
  Also the April 12th deadline gives some time for EU elections to be arranged in the UK, which will be a necessity of any delay now.
isostatic 8y ago
Note: I use the word deal to mean the withdrawal agreement, which is an agreement on how we leave, not on the future direction. Deadlines April 12 -- if mays deal has passed, extended to May 22 to allow domestic legislation to be passed to implement the deal If not passed by then, then uk leaves with no deal However May's government can ask for an extension at any point up until April 12th. This extension will rely on the UK participating in the EU elections. Those elections can be held if announced by or on April 12th -- there's a reason it's that day and not April 3rd or 19th. It's almost certain we'll be looking at a long delay, and either a referendum or general election

iainmerrick 8y ago

That’s almost it, but there’s one extra point. If the deal isn’t passed today, the April 12th deadline is for the UK to come up with a new suggestion. If the deal fails, the UK could request a longer extension, or even revoke article 50. The EU has strongly signaled that they’d be open to adjusting the political declaration in favour of a customs union, for example. If the UK were to vote for that early next week, it could in principle be agreed on both sides fairly quickly. The main EU requirement is that to avoid a no-deal exit on April 12, the UK has to actually do something different, not simply ask for more time. If the UK requested time for a general election or a second referendum, that would probably be accepted by the EU (although it’s not guaranteed).