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Unsurprisingly there are several possibilities not accounted for here. One being that the 3rd vote passes, the PM resigns (which she's already agreed to do), a
by krona 8y ago
Unsurprisingly there are several possibilities not accounted for here.
One being that the 3rd vote passes, the PM resigns (which she's already agreed to do), a new leader is elected and a general election is held soon after which will essentially be a 'second referendum' election in which we end up rejoining the EU in less than 5 years. A true Schrödinger's brexit.
- Sahhaese 8y agoSadly we'll never be able to rejoin with the amazing deal we have now, with our rebate and opt-outs intact. And no matter the outcome, we've lost our dignity. We'll never get back our reputation for stability.
- Theodores 8y agoIf they had a pie fight in the Commons, much like the alternative ending of Dr Strangelove then I think that dignity could be restored.
- digianarchist 8y agoWhich would oblige the UK to join the Schengen area adopt the Euro.
- _nalply 8y agoPerhaps you forgot the word "and" after "Schengen area". Because these are two different things as Switzerland shows (Switzerland being in the Schengen area but not adopting the Euro).
- digianarchist 8y agoIndeed I did however I feel as though that is obvious and your comment is rather facetious.
- _nalply 8y agoSorry.
- blowski 8y agoThe flowchart is helpful, but it doesn't (and can't) account for all sorts of unexpected surprises - and the last 3 years has been full of those.
- jillesvangurp 8y agoYes. The two extreme options are the canceling the deal and a hard brexit. Both have a minority of supporters and a majority of opponents for whom backing either option would be political suicide thus making that extremely unlikely. It's basically an empty threat. The past few days have shown there is a lot of movement in people grudgingly supporting this or that but still no majority for anything. So, that makes May's compromise deal the inevitable outcome. But nobody wants to own that, just yet. All the posturing we are currently seeing on all sides is basically preemptive ass covering of politicians playing the "but I had no other choice" card. Hence Boris Johnson suddenly agreeing to back May. Not a surprise; he's smart enough to not want to be associated with an actual career ending hard brexit. This way he supports May and has a shot at taking over as prime minister without actually being the one that was in charge at the key moment. I doubt it will work out for him but it fits a pattern of taking populist positions but being reluctant to act accordingly. IMHO the more likely a hard brexit becomes, the more likely it is there will be meaningful movement on the EU side to prevent exactly that. In good EU tradition all 'hard' deadlines become highly fluid when they get closer. Today was one until last week when they grudgingly extended that by 2 weeks. As the next date draws nearer, I fully expect that extensions to that will again be negotiated successfully. This will continue as long as the British parliament doesn't break it's current deadlock of actually voting in favor of just about anything.
- keithpeter 8y agoMay3 as dead as the Monty Python parrot. Odds of no deal being offered 2/1, as is 2019 referendum Fri Mar 29 17:34:54 GMT 2019
- bebna 8y ago> which she's already agreed to do No, she implied it. And May isn't really known to keep her promises in the first place.