3 ms·

Except that it inverted long after these companies had decided on their IPO timeline. I am sure everyone will be here with "I told you so" takes if the market d

Except that it inverted long after these companies had decided on their IPO timeline. I am sure everyone will be here with "I told you so" takes if the market does go down. But if it doesn't no one will remember these predictions.

Spooky23 8y ago
It’s a pretty risky time to be in the market at a full allocation. I cannot imagine the 2020 electoral carnival and whatever shitshow emerges from Brexit will be taken well.
iamaelephant 8y ago
It followed a steady trajectory towards inversion, a lot of people could have and did predict the inversion years in advance.
gimmeThaBeet 8y ago
This Matt Levine snippet was relevant yesterday, it's more relevant today, it's probably going to be relevant every day. >On the other hand, if you bet that stocks will go down, you have some compensating psychic rewards. For one thing, occasionally stocks will go down, and you will be praised for your prescience in predicting the crash, and the people who were long will be mocked for their complacency. How smart you will feel! >For another thing, even if stocks haven’t gone down, you get to borrow psychically, as it were, against that future moment of glory. You can just go around sort of saying “this is unsustainable and eventually stocks will go down and I will be praised for my prescience,” and people will be surprisingly willing to say “yes that’s correct, I admire your hypothetical prescience.” Particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, financial markets—and financial media—have a strongly entrenched narrative of prescient bears and complacent bulls, a widespread sense that any rising market is suspect and that the cynical view is always the smart one. Once again, its strikes me as odd that so many people clamor to call the top so frequently.

3 ms·

Except that it inverted long after these companies had decided on their IPO timeline. I am sure everyone will be here with "I told you so" takes if the market d

by what_ever 8y ago

Spooky23 8y ago
It’s a pretty risky time to be in the market at a full allocation. I cannot imagine the 2020 electoral carnival and whatever shitshow emerges from Brexit will be taken well.
iamaelephant 8y ago
It followed a steady trajectory towards inversion, a lot of people could have and did predict the inversion years in advance.
gimmeThaBeet 8y ago
This Matt Levine snippet was relevant yesterday, it's more relevant today, it's probably going to be relevant every day. >On the other hand, if you bet that stocks will go down, you have some compensating psychic rewards. For one thing, occasionally stocks will go down, and you will be praised for your prescience in predicting the crash, and the people who were long will be mocked for their complacency. How smart you will feel! >For another thing, even if stocks haven’t gone down, you get to borrow psychically, as it were, against that future moment of glory. You can just go around sort of saying “this is unsustainable and eventually stocks will go down and I will be praised for my prescience,” and people will be surprisingly willing to say “yes that’s correct, I admire your hypothetical prescience.” Particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, financial markets—and financial media—have a strongly entrenched narrative of prescient bears and complacent bulls, a widespread sense that any rising market is suspect and that the cynical view is always the smart one. Once again, its strikes me as odd that so many people clamor to call the top so frequently.