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Global warming was the scientific consensus a few years ago. It was thought that increased temperatures and radiation adversely affected amphibian eggs causing

Global warming was the scientific consensus a few years ago. It was thought that increased temperatures and radiation adversely affected amphibian eggs causing a failure to hatch. I guess it could be multifactorial

abalone 8y ago
User devoply just posted this paper linking climate change to the spread of this fungus. It’s not just trade and travel. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1685858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1685858/
- mirimir 8y ago
  > Our analysis shows a significant association between change in local climatic variables and the occurrence of chytridiomycosis within this region. Specifically, we show that rising temperature is linked to the occurrence of chytrid-related disease, consistent with the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. We show that these local variables are driven by general circulation patterns, principally the North Atlantic Oscillation. Given that B. dendrobatidis is known to be broadly distributed across Europe, there is now an urgent need to assess the generality of our finding and determine whether climate-driven epidemics may be expected to impact on amphibian species across the wider region. So yes, trade and travel spread the fungus. And increasing temperature decreases resistance to it. Very succinct: "chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis".
umvi 8y ago
Global warming I swear can be used to retroactively explain any anomaly just because the effects of temperature on different processes has so many difficult to predict side effects. Like, if America suddenly had a mini ice age next year I'm pretty sure AGW would be used to retroactively explain how this might happen. Or if crops die, etc.
- asdfasdfasdfa 8y ago
  Yeah, it turns out destabilizing the climate is a big fucking deal.
  - umvi 8y ago
    I agree but, come on. It's a cop out. Anyone can retroactively fit a model. It's much harder to have a model that makes good predictions. It's tiring when everything from insect populations, to depression in humans, to polar vortexes are all retroactively attributed to AGW. Of course, existing models would never predict these things, they are simply observed, and then a climate related cause is sought out and pinned on.
    - zemvpferreira 8y ago
      Why would you expect us to have good models for unprecedented events of unprecedented scale? I’m all for high standards but this isn’t exactly a simple thing you’re pining for.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
    - sneakernets 8y ago
      But AGW is why those things are happening.
      - goatlover 8y ago
        But how do we know that as opposed to just assuming AGW is the cause for all those things, as opposed to there being other causes?
    - pard68 8y ago
      Agreed. My main concern is things are not going to be better researched because climate change is the simple answer, why look further? I work at a university, talk to lots of scientists and academics in my free me, these researchers are just as human as anyone else and simple answers are just as appealing and knee-jerk reactions are just as common
stevenwoo 8y ago
Similar to how Lyme disease has spread to ticks over most of the USA because climate change has expanded the viable range, one is still more likely to get exposed to it in the original area of the Northeast but it's now found in ticks spread over the country, and this is true in other countries as well.
- jessaustin 8y ago
  It's interesting that warming would make it easier for ticks from the Northeast to travel south. Or, alternatively, for Borrelia bacteria to do the same, since I have it on good authority that the South has had ticks for a long time. It almost explains too much.
  - dmichulke 8y ago
    I'll translate because it's interesting and was not immediately obvious (to me) The south had ticks before (global warming), yet no (few?) Borrelia bacteria. Therefore there is no indication other than a timely coincidence that global warming is responsible for Borrelia bacteria appearing more frequently in the south.
    - acqq 8y ago
      > there is no indication other than a timely coincidence that global warming is responsible for Borrelia bacteria But that still doesn't disprove AGW as the cause of the spread of the ticks! Once you have the ticks there where they weren't before, something as simple as bacteria can infect them easier.
      - acqq 8y ago
        I don't see it any different than malaria, caused by plasmodium and also a serious health problem in some parts of the world ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria ): not all mosquitoes carry malaria, but the only way to eradicate malaria in some area is to manage to not have mosquitoes there, it's known since approximately the end of the 19th century, and still true. And the spreading of malaria has also different dynamics from the spreading of all of mosquitoes. So yes, the changes in environment that make for the insects to easy to spread in the areas where they couldn't before is something that should concern the humans, especially if there is a proof that humans helped the spread.

abalone 8y ago

User devoply just posted this paper linking climate change to the spread of this fungus. It’s not just trade and travel. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1685858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1685858/

mirimir 8y ago
> Our analysis shows a significant association between change in local climatic variables and the occurrence of chytridiomycosis within this region. Specifically, we show that rising temperature is linked to the occurrence of chytrid-related disease, consistent with the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. We show that these local variables are driven by general circulation patterns, principally the North Atlantic Oscillation. Given that B. dendrobatidis is known to be broadly distributed across Europe, there is now an urgent need to assess the generality of our finding and determine whether climate-driven epidemics may be expected to impact on amphibian species across the wider region. So yes, trade and travel spread the fungus. And increasing temperature decreases resistance to it. Very succinct: "chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis".

umvi 8y ago

Global warming I swear can be used to retroactively explain any anomaly just because the effects of temperature on different processes has so many difficult to predict side effects. Like, if America suddenly had a mini ice age next year I'm pretty sure AGW would be used to retroactively explain how this might happen. Or if crops die, etc.

asdfasdfasdfa 8y ago
Yeah, it turns out destabilizing the climate is a big fucking deal.
- umvi 8y ago
  I agree but, come on. It's a cop out. Anyone can retroactively fit a model. It's much harder to have a model that makes good predictions. It's tiring when everything from insect populations, to depression in humans, to polar vortexes are all retroactively attributed to AGW. Of course, existing models would never predict these things, they are simply observed, and then a climate related cause is sought out and pinned on.
  - zemvpferreira 8y ago
    Why would you expect us to have good models for unprecedented events of unprecedented scale? I’m all for high standards but this isn’t exactly a simple thing you’re pining for.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
  - sneakernets 8y ago
    But AGW is why those things are happening.
    - goatlover 8y ago
      But how do we know that as opposed to just assuming AGW is the cause for all those things, as opposed to there being other causes?
  - pard68 8y ago
    Agreed. My main concern is things are not going to be better researched because climate change is the simple answer, why look further? I work at a university, talk to lots of scientists and academics in my free me, these researchers are just as human as anyone else and simple answers are just as appealing and knee-jerk reactions are just as common

stevenwoo 8y ago

Similar to how Lyme disease has spread to ticks over most of the USA because climate change has expanded the viable range, one is still more likely to get exposed to it in the original area of the Northeast but it's now found in ticks spread over the country, and this is true in other countries as well.

jessaustin 8y ago
It's interesting that warming would make it easier for ticks from the Northeast to travel south. Or, alternatively, for Borrelia bacteria to do the same, since I have it on good authority that the South has had ticks for a long time. It almost explains too much.
- dmichulke 8y ago
  I'll translate because it's interesting and was not immediately obvious (to me) The south had ticks before (global warming), yet no (few?) Borrelia bacteria. Therefore there is no indication other than a timely coincidence that global warming is responsible for Borrelia bacteria appearing more frequently in the south.
  - acqq 8y ago
    > there is no indication other than a timely coincidence that global warming is responsible for Borrelia bacteria But that still doesn't disprove AGW as the cause of the spread of the ticks! Once you have the ticks there where they weren't before, something as simple as bacteria can infect them easier.
    - acqq 8y ago
      I don't see it any different than malaria, caused by plasmodium and also a serious health problem in some parts of the world ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria ): not all mosquitoes carry malaria, but the only way to eradicate malaria in some area is to manage to not have mosquitoes there, it's known since approximately the end of the 19th century, and still true. And the spreading of malaria has also different dynamics from the spreading of all of mosquitoes. So yes, the changes in environment that make for the insects to easy to spread in the areas where they couldn't before is something that should concern the humans, especially if there is a proof that humans helped the spread.