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As an Andrew Yang fan myself, I was shocked to see that PredictIt has him as the third most expensive (read likely) candidate after Bernie and Biden, at least w
by losvedir 8y ago
As an Andrew Yang fan myself, I was shocked to see that PredictIt has him as the third most expensive (read likely) candidate after Bernie and Biden, at least when I checked. This is in stark contrast to his 0-1% polling rate in the most recent polls.
So, are they just very leading indicators? It got me thinking that it's a relatively cheap campaign strategy since people like to refer to those as some sort of "market based odds" thing. Is it legal and/or ethical for campaigns to buy themselves on the betting markets to drive up the appearance of demand?
We'll see come the Apr 1 FEC reporting deadline if it translates to campaign donations, which are on of the real signals of the seriousness of campaigns.
- dondon1 8y agoI guess the predcitit market assumes a faster growth in Yangs popularity and is pricing this in.
- dragonwriter 8y ago> So, are they just very leading indicators? AFAIK, there is no evidence that early standing in prediction markets is any better a predictor than early polling; prediction markets tend to converge to the ultimate result close to the election, but so do polling numbers.
- pixelperfect 8y agoWith PredictIt there's a max bet size, so the manipulation would have to be spread over many accounts. Seems like a very high risk/reward ratio considering how many people would have to be involved, and considering most people don't know or care much about PredictIt.
- SatvikBeri 8y agoThe major flaw in PredictIt is the low maximum cap and lack of interest paid. That makes it unprofitable to bet on small corrections even if you're right (e.g. 5% to 10%, or 5% to 1%). So PredictIt shouldn't be considered precise at small percentages.