5 ms·

Soooo 1. Generate fake phone profiles of a made-up disaster crew 2. Wait for minor disaster at random refinery 3. Feed trackers with location data showing yo

by lolc 8y ago

Soooo 1. Generate fake phone profiles of a made-up disaster crew 2. Wait for minor disaster at random refinery 3. Feed trackers with location data showing your fake crew moving into that refinery 4. Repeat 2, 3 to associate your profiles with disaster 5. Short some fine $refinery stock 6. Move your crew to $refinery 7. Profit I wonder whether this has already been pulled off :-)

mateo411 8y ago
That sounds like a great plot for an episode of Billions.
tantalor 8y ago
8. Indicted for fraud
- lolc 8y ago
  What about it is fraud?
  - tantalor 8y ago
    The parts between "fake" and "profit".
    - sansnomme 8y ago
      It's no different than beating an opponent's bot in HFT
      - dchichkov 8y ago
        It is actually illegal to beat an opponent's bot in HFT. It is regulated. One is not supposed to release a strategy on the market, which goal is "to beat an opponent's bot". There've been precedents of that (i.e. bot of a pension fund figured out and beaten by algorithmic trading company bot) and the resulting trades were reversed, fines imposed by regulators. Source. 4 years of R&D at HFT company that traded around $10^10 during that time :)
    - anigbrowl 8y ago
      This won't meet the elements of fraud in the US because while you could argue that the performative activity was a deliberate representation (in contrast to a false claim where I tell you directly about a great deal on a bridge that doesn't really exist), you'll have trouble establishing the detrimental reliance aspect. If you see misleading activity and then jump to an incorrect conclusion instead of verifying its truth or falsehood then that's on you.
      - tantalor 8y ago
        Not true if the other party stands to profit from the misleading activity. For example, pump & dump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump
        anigbrowl 8y ago
        Good point, but I'm not sure if fake market behavior (along with the direct exhortations to participation) directly maps onto fake real world behavior with no solicitation. As a (somewhat ridiculous) counter example, suppose I know you, a trader, love tap dancing and I, also a trader, happen to be a skilled tap dancer. On Monday I show up outside your office and start tapping up a storm. You are unable to resist the sound of your favorite thing and rush out of your office to enjoy my performance. I return at the same hour Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and by then you are out on the sidewalk expecting me when I show up. Friday you leave your office as usual but you wait for me to show in vain, for I am in my office and taking advantage of your absence to make a big trade against you. Have I defrauded you? You believed that I would show up to entertain you instead of competing against you in the market, and frankly I trained you to think so only to enrich myself at your expense.
        zaphirplane 8y ago
        I don’t know why people think it’s ok to intend to commit fraud, intend to swindle someone, do it. Then have a long song and dance about how the fraud committed wasn’t actually fraud Let’s make it simple you intend to commit murder, you buy the tools, draw up a plan, then get arrested. Guess what you are up for with zero interaction with the victim
- AznHisoka 8y ago
  don't think this is fraud. Oil refineries aren't lying about their oil production to the general public. It's the hedge funds' fault for relying on their location data.
  - mateo1 8y ago
    I'm not sure about American law, but most of our laws have a term mentioning "... in Good Faith." These two words are pretty spectacularly effective in disarming you from all sorts of trickery.
  - dchichkov 8y ago
    It is market manipulation. In the United States it is prohibited under Section 9(a)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Chris2048 8y ago
  You need to be in a position of authority for that. Faking unreliable data isn't fraud - the info you are affecting isn't a recognized metric.
creatornator 8y ago
I think realistically, the refinery wouldn't have a reason to release the information that they saw a red flag. The stock wouldn't be affected, there'd just be an internal scramble/panic attack.
- lolc 8y ago
  The refinery wouldn't necessarily notice it's been the stage of a fake disaster. The scheme uses a channel (cell phone location feeds) the refinery is unlikely to watch.

by lolc 8y ago

mateo411 8y ago

That sounds like a great plot for an episode of Billions.

tantalor 8y ago

8. Indicted for fraud

lolc 8y ago
What about it is fraud?
- tantalor 8y ago
  The parts between "fake" and "profit".
  - sansnomme 8y ago
    It's no different than beating an opponent's bot in HFT
    - dchichkov 8y ago
      It is actually illegal to beat an opponent's bot in HFT. It is regulated. One is not supposed to release a strategy on the market, which goal is "to beat an opponent's bot". There've been precedents of that (i.e. bot of a pension fund figured out and beaten by algorithmic trading company bot) and the resulting trades were reversed, fines imposed by regulators. Source. 4 years of R&D at HFT company that traded around $10^10 during that time :)
  - anigbrowl 8y ago
    This won't meet the elements of fraud in the US because while you could argue that the performative activity was a deliberate representation (in contrast to a false claim where I tell you directly about a great deal on a bridge that doesn't really exist), you'll have trouble establishing the detrimental reliance aspect. If you see misleading activity and then jump to an incorrect conclusion instead of verifying its truth or falsehood then that's on you.
    - tantalor 8y ago
      Not true if the other party stands to profit from the misleading activity. For example, pump & dump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump
      - anigbrowl 8y ago
        Good point, but I'm not sure if fake market behavior (along with the direct exhortations to participation) directly maps onto fake real world behavior with no solicitation. As a (somewhat ridiculous) counter example, suppose I know you, a trader, love tap dancing and I, also a trader, happen to be a skilled tap dancer. On Monday I show up outside your office and start tapping up a storm. You are unable to resist the sound of your favorite thing and rush out of your office to enjoy my performance. I return at the same hour Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and by then you are out on the sidewalk expecting me when I show up. Friday you leave your office as usual but you wait for me to show in vain, for I am in my office and taking advantage of your absence to make a big trade against you. Have I defrauded you? You believed that I would show up to entertain you instead of competing against you in the market, and frankly I trained you to think so only to enrich myself at your expense.
        zaphirplane 8y ago
        I don’t know why people think it’s ok to intend to commit fraud, intend to swindle someone, do it. Then have a long song and dance about how the fraud committed wasn’t actually fraud Let’s make it simple you intend to commit murder, you buy the tools, draw up a plan, then get arrested. Guess what you are up for with zero interaction with the victim
AznHisoka 8y ago
don't think this is fraud. Oil refineries aren't lying about their oil production to the general public. It's the hedge funds' fault for relying on their location data.
- mateo1 8y ago
  I'm not sure about American law, but most of our laws have a term mentioning "... in Good Faith." These two words are pretty spectacularly effective in disarming you from all sorts of trickery.
- dchichkov 8y ago
  It is market manipulation. In the United States it is prohibited under Section 9(a)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Chris2048 8y ago
You need to be in a position of authority for that. Faking unreliable data isn't fraud - the info you are affecting isn't a recognized metric.

creatornator 8y ago

I think realistically, the refinery wouldn't have a reason to release the information that they saw a red flag. The stock wouldn't be affected, there'd just be an internal scramble/panic attack.

lolc 8y ago
The refinery wouldn't necessarily notice it's been the stage of a fake disaster. The scheme uses a channel (cell phone location feeds) the refinery is unlikely to watch.