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> Anyone think it strange that a phone company wouldn't see the emergence of the smartphone? > Guffawed when I saw those phone booth picture phones. It's how
by msla 8y ago
> Anyone think it strange that a phone company wouldn't see the emergence of the smartphone?
> Guffawed when I saw those phone booth picture phones.
It's how these things usually work: The Future Is The Same, But Different
The Same: Things basically click along they way they do now. Want to make a call away from home or office? Use a payphone. Most natural thing in the world.
But Different: Well, payphones aren't going to stay the same, are they? Videophones have been a Coming Thing for decades now, so obviously we'll have Video Payphones.
All of those Coming Things. Where have they all gone?
The interesting thing to me is this: Car phones had existed for decades by that point. They'd slimmed down to bag phones for the masses, and bricks for Gordon Gekko and his proteges. But AT&T didn't prognosticate their continued slimming driving payphones into irrelevance. You don't even need the smartphone concept, which was a truly interesting convergence of cell phone and computer, to get the idea that "Cell phones getting smaller" leads to "I can carry a phone with me" leads to "I don't need a payphone" leads to payphones no longer existing.
Oh, and Bag Phone, because nobody else seems to remember them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_Bag_Phone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_Bag_Phone
- ssewell 8y agoGood insight! Really rings true when the guy "faxes" from the beach. They had the foresight for ubiquitous remote access, but not for a modern messaging platform. :)
- philwelch 8y agoThe collective imagination of all of humanity, when presented with new technology 20 years in the future, is always going to discover implications that any futurist or group of futurists would never think of.