9 ms·

What’s the opposite of results-oriented in this case? I.e. what should you orient toward, if not results?

gagagababa 8y ago
To maximize expected value (EV). You can go all in with AA pre-flop and get a bad beat from someone with 27o. While the result is bad (you lost this time), you made a +EV decision because you were ~80% favorite to win so over the long run this move will actually be profitable.
- yingw787 8y ago
  I really like this way of thinking! It gives an air of clarity and calm to your decision making because you are looking at the big picture, which is really hard to do.
- davidscolgan 8y ago
  This right here. But a key aspect of using the expected value idea is that you have to be able to make lots of these bets. If you have a good expected value decision but only make it once or twice, you could just get burned by luck. Only if you can make that same high percentage play many times does this work. The book Antifragile is all about this. His advice for entrepreneurs specifically is to "avoid your risk of ruin". Starting a business is never guaranteed to succeed, and if you stake your entire life savings on one business venture and take out loans, you could just get unlucky regardless of EV. If you, say, kept a part time job and worked on your business in the rest of your time and had infinite runway, you'll eventually succeed if you don't quit. This idea has strongly impacted the way I face decision making.
- kaycebasques 8y ago
  I'm seeing a lot of responses related to EV. Is this an evolutionarily stable strategy? Is there any way for a minority to exploit every one's focus on EV? I understand that, mathematically, this sounds ridiculous. But I'm wondering if, psychologically, there's a way to exploit everyone's EV mindset.
  - friedman23 8y ago
    So the first thing to mention is that psychology has very little to do with playing good poker. Secondly we'll define perfect poker as game theory optimal poker. Game theory optimal poker better known as GTO poker is by definition unexploitable. In the long run, two people playing GTO poker against eachother neither player will win money. GTO poker is not necessarily the form of poker that will make the most money. Given that 99% of the time you are playing versus amateurs who do not know sound poker strategy you can adjust your play style in order to exploit the mistakes of the other players. When you adjust you are actually exposing yourself to better players. Better players can identify how you are adjusting to take advantage of bad players and in turn adjust themselves to take advantage of the weaknesses you are introducing into your game.
- base698 8y ago
  Even worse when you have a set against two pair with one card to come and the only card to help the other guy is the higher of his two pair and it hits with all your money in. About a 95% favorite.
GavinMcG 8y ago
Fundamental good practices. In poker terms: you can't judge by winning or losing, only by whether your decisions were +EV or -EV.
javitury 8y ago
Not a poker player, but I think you don't focus on realized results, you have to focus on expected results. What is gone is gone. Let's say you play texas hol'em, you go all-in with AA in the first round and lose. The expected payoff was positive even if you have lost. And if you were given the chance to play again, you should keep playing the same way.
- smnplk 8y ago
  http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-dollars/ http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-do...
draw_down 8y ago
As GP said, you focus on making the correct decision given the circumstances. You can’t be results oriented because the results involve things out of your control. Which means it’s possible to win after making a bad play, and to lose after making a correct play.
paulcole 8y ago
Process and decision-making. Confidently make the correct decision every time and trust that your edge will pay off in the long run. This is the #1 thing I learned from being a serious and competitive Scrabble player.
gouldtechnique 8y ago
process-oriented
edmundsauto 8y ago
Annie Duke (one of the top players of all time) has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis. Highly recommended.
drjesusphd 8y ago
Results are often governed by factors you have no control over or knowledge of. If you get unlucky, it may not be because you made a bad decision.

To maximize expected value (EV). You can go all in with AA pre-flop and get a bad beat from someone with 27o. While the result is bad (you lost this time), you made a +EV decision because you were ~80% favorite to win so over the long run this move will actually be profitable.

yingw787 8y ago
I really like this way of thinking! It gives an air of clarity and calm to your decision making because you are looking at the big picture, which is really hard to do.
davidscolgan 8y ago
This right here. But a key aspect of using the expected value idea is that you have to be able to make lots of these bets. If you have a good expected value decision but only make it once or twice, you could just get burned by luck. Only if you can make that same high percentage play many times does this work. The book Antifragile is all about this. His advice for entrepreneurs specifically is to "avoid your risk of ruin". Starting a business is never guaranteed to succeed, and if you stake your entire life savings on one business venture and take out loans, you could just get unlucky regardless of EV. If you, say, kept a part time job and worked on your business in the rest of your time and had infinite runway, you'll eventually succeed if you don't quit. This idea has strongly impacted the way I face decision making.
kaycebasques 8y ago
I'm seeing a lot of responses related to EV. Is this an evolutionarily stable strategy? Is there any way for a minority to exploit every one's focus on EV? I understand that, mathematically, this sounds ridiculous. But I'm wondering if, psychologically, there's a way to exploit everyone's EV mindset.
- friedman23 8y ago
  So the first thing to mention is that psychology has very little to do with playing good poker. Secondly we'll define perfect poker as game theory optimal poker. Game theory optimal poker better known as GTO poker is by definition unexploitable. In the long run, two people playing GTO poker against eachother neither player will win money. GTO poker is not necessarily the form of poker that will make the most money. Given that 99% of the time you are playing versus amateurs who do not know sound poker strategy you can adjust your play style in order to exploit the mistakes of the other players. When you adjust you are actually exposing yourself to better players. Better players can identify how you are adjusting to take advantage of bad players and in turn adjust themselves to take advantage of the weaknesses you are introducing into your game.
base698 8y ago
Even worse when you have a set against two pair with one card to come and the only card to help the other guy is the higher of his two pair and it hits with all your money in. About a 95% favorite.

GavinMcG 8y ago

Fundamental good practices. In poker terms: you can't judge by winning or losing, only by whether your decisions were +EV or -EV.

javitury 8y ago

Not a poker player, but I think you don't focus on realized results, you have to focus on expected results. What is gone is gone. Let's say you play texas hol'em, you go all-in with AA in the first round and lose. The expected payoff was positive even if you have lost. And if you were given the chance to play again, you should keep playing the same way.

smnplk 8y ago
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-dollars/ http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-do...

draw_down 8y ago

As GP said, you focus on making the correct decision given the circumstances. You can’t be results oriented because the results involve things out of your control. Which means it’s possible to win after making a bad play, and to lose after making a correct play.

paulcole 8y ago

Process and decision-making. Confidently make the correct decision every time and trust that your edge will pay off in the long run. This is the #1 thing I learned from being a serious and competitive Scrabble player.

gouldtechnique 8y ago

process-oriented

edmundsauto 8y ago

Annie Duke (one of the top players of all time) has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis. Highly recommended.

drjesusphd 8y ago

Results are often governed by factors you have no control over or knowledge of. If you get unlucky, it may not be because you made a bad decision.