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I used to play a lot of poker online back in the day, two lessons stuck with me: Speaking to the variance of the game: "Eventually you will run worse than you

I used to play a lot of poker online back in the day, two lessons stuck with me: Speaking to the variance of the game: "Eventually you will run worse than you ever thought possible" Poker teaches, contrary to most business literature, to not be results oriented. It is the decision not the result that matters. "You can do everything right and still lose".

kaycebasques 8y ago
What’s the opposite of results-oriented in this case? I.e. what should you orient toward, if not results?
- gagagababa 8y ago
  To maximize expected value (EV). You can go all in with AA pre-flop and get a bad beat from someone with 27o. While the result is bad (you lost this time), you made a +EV decision because you were ~80% favorite to win so over the long run this move will actually be profitable.
  - yingw787 8y ago
    I really like this way of thinking! It gives an air of clarity and calm to your decision making because you are looking at the big picture, which is really hard to do.
  - davidscolgan 8y ago
    This right here. But a key aspect of using the expected value idea is that you have to be able to make lots of these bets. If you have a good expected value decision but only make it once or twice, you could just get burned by luck. Only if you can make that same high percentage play many times does this work. The book Antifragile is all about this. His advice for entrepreneurs specifically is to "avoid your risk of ruin". Starting a business is never guaranteed to succeed, and if you stake your entire life savings on one business venture and take out loans, you could just get unlucky regardless of EV. If you, say, kept a part time job and worked on your business in the rest of your time and had infinite runway, you'll eventually succeed if you don't quit. This idea has strongly impacted the way I face decision making.
  - kaycebasques 8y ago
    I'm seeing a lot of responses related to EV. Is this an evolutionarily stable strategy? Is there any way for a minority to exploit every one's focus on EV? I understand that, mathematically, this sounds ridiculous. But I'm wondering if, psychologically, there's a way to exploit everyone's EV mindset.
    - friedman23 8y ago
      So the first thing to mention is that psychology has very little to do with playing good poker. Secondly we'll define perfect poker as game theory optimal poker. Game theory optimal poker better known as GTO poker is by definition unexploitable. In the long run, two people playing GTO poker against eachother neither player will win money. GTO poker is not necessarily the form of poker that will make the most money. Given that 99% of the time you are playing versus amateurs who do not know sound poker strategy you can adjust your play style in order to exploit the mistakes of the other players. When you adjust you are actually exposing yourself to better players. Better players can identify how you are adjusting to take advantage of bad players and in turn adjust themselves to take advantage of the weaknesses you are introducing into your game.
  - base698 8y ago
    Even worse when you have a set against two pair with one card to come and the only card to help the other guy is the higher of his two pair and it hits with all your money in. About a 95% favorite.
- GavinMcG 8y ago
  Fundamental good practices. In poker terms: you can't judge by winning or losing, only by whether your decisions were +EV or -EV.
- javitury 8y ago
  Not a poker player, but I think you don't focus on realized results, you have to focus on expected results. What is gone is gone. Let's say you play texas hol'em, you go all-in with AA in the first round and lose. The expected payoff was positive even if you have lost. And if you were given the chance to play again, you should keep playing the same way.
  - smnplk 8y ago
    http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-dollars/ http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-do...
- draw_down 8y ago
  As GP said, you focus on making the correct decision given the circumstances. You can’t be results oriented because the results involve things out of your control. Which means it’s possible to win after making a bad play, and to lose after making a correct play.
- paulcole 8y ago
  Process and decision-making. Confidently make the correct decision every time and trust that your edge will pay off in the long run. This is the #1 thing I learned from being a serious and competitive Scrabble player.
- gouldtechnique 8y ago
  process-oriented
- edmundsauto 8y ago
  Annie Duke (one of the top players of all time) has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis. Highly recommended.
- drjesusphd 8y ago
  Results are often governed by factors you have no control over or knowledge of. If you get unlucky, it may not be because you made a bad decision.
woliveirajr 8y ago
> You can do everything right and still lose This one. I'm not sure how many readers I would have if I tried to explain it in a book, but I'm tired (to the point that I don't read the books, just the covers) about how everything will be ok if you just wish. When you just learn that sometimes people fail even having taking the best possible decision at any point, you get another perspective for your life.
- slashdotdash 8y ago
  "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke [1] is just that book. It emphasises that a bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bet...
  - davidscolgan 8y ago
    Recently read this book in a business book club. It's A++ and is a great mindset shift for business. Make high percentage decisions, and don't discount a decision if it was a good decision but the outcome happened to not work out.
  - jdietrich 8y ago
    See also The Tao of Poker by Larry W Phillips. It's a genuine masterpiece of poker writing. https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Poker-Rules-Transform-Your/dp/1580628370 https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Poker-Rules-Transform-Your/dp/158...
  - dmurray 8y ago
    Annie Duke has a terrible history of being involved in high-profile scams [0], and a mediocre record of actually playing poker. I haven't read the book, but if there's anything I'd trust her advice on, it's how to always position yourself one or two steps away from the fall guy. [0] https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/22503-why-does-mainstream-media-keep-talking-to-former-poker-pro-annie-duke https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/22503-why-does-mainstr...
- 8y ago
hoorayimhelping 8y ago
>"You can do everything right and still lose". Super insightful and eye opening when I finally wrapped my head around it. The insightful and valuable corollary / takeaway I get from this is: "But if you make the right move enough, you will win eventually." Determination matters, in poker, in business, in whatever hobby you do. I've noticed this laddering Counterstrike and Overwatch. Individual losses are frustrating, especially when you feel you made the right moves. But if you keep making the right moves, you will eventually win more than you lose in the long run. You just need to have the determination and drive to stick with it.
- jandrese 8y ago
  > "But if you make the right move enough, you will win eventually." Or run out of money trying.
  - drjesusphd 8y ago
    If you have enough knowledge, confidence in said knowledge, and the discipline to consistently apply it, you will know how much money is required to make it a near certainty that won't happen.
- bena 8y ago
  It's also kind of the philosophy behind "fail fast and often". The outcome of any given decision is affected by so many things that all have to go right, it might as well be random, the only mistake is not making the decision. Eventually, things will line up if you just keep swinging.
maxxxxx 8y ago
"You can do everything right and still lose" I remember the saying "You are entitled to your actions, but not the results" somewhere in Indian philosophy. Means you should always do your best but there is still no guarantee for the expected result.
johnsang 8y ago
Learning to stick to the plan after getting crushed for weeks or months is something that can instill the worst doubt in the most confident of people. Learning to separate the feeling of results (both highs and lows) from the act of playing was one of poker's toughest lessons.
Philomath 8y ago
Being best friends with some of the best in the world (+1M earnings) I really want to emphasize this. I've seen my friends be happy after loosing a hand that would have won them an extra 70k in a tournament and really mean it when they say: I'm happy because I played that well, no matter the outcome. It's all about playing a lot. Eventually, statistics pay off.
maceurt 8y ago
On tip of that you can do everything wrong and still win.

kaycebasques 8y ago

What’s the opposite of results-oriented in this case? I.e. what should you orient toward, if not results?

gagagababa 8y ago
To maximize expected value (EV). You can go all in with AA pre-flop and get a bad beat from someone with 27o. While the result is bad (you lost this time), you made a +EV decision because you were ~80% favorite to win so over the long run this move will actually be profitable.
- yingw787 8y ago
  I really like this way of thinking! It gives an air of clarity and calm to your decision making because you are looking at the big picture, which is really hard to do.
- davidscolgan 8y ago
  This right here. But a key aspect of using the expected value idea is that you have to be able to make lots of these bets. If you have a good expected value decision but only make it once or twice, you could just get burned by luck. Only if you can make that same high percentage play many times does this work. The book Antifragile is all about this. His advice for entrepreneurs specifically is to "avoid your risk of ruin". Starting a business is never guaranteed to succeed, and if you stake your entire life savings on one business venture and take out loans, you could just get unlucky regardless of EV. If you, say, kept a part time job and worked on your business in the rest of your time and had infinite runway, you'll eventually succeed if you don't quit. This idea has strongly impacted the way I face decision making.
- kaycebasques 8y ago
  I'm seeing a lot of responses related to EV. Is this an evolutionarily stable strategy? Is there any way for a minority to exploit every one's focus on EV? I understand that, mathematically, this sounds ridiculous. But I'm wondering if, psychologically, there's a way to exploit everyone's EV mindset.
  - friedman23 8y ago
    So the first thing to mention is that psychology has very little to do with playing good poker. Secondly we'll define perfect poker as game theory optimal poker. Game theory optimal poker better known as GTO poker is by definition unexploitable. In the long run, two people playing GTO poker against eachother neither player will win money. GTO poker is not necessarily the form of poker that will make the most money. Given that 99% of the time you are playing versus amateurs who do not know sound poker strategy you can adjust your play style in order to exploit the mistakes of the other players. When you adjust you are actually exposing yourself to better players. Better players can identify how you are adjusting to take advantage of bad players and in turn adjust themselves to take advantage of the weaknesses you are introducing into your game.
- base698 8y ago
  Even worse when you have a set against two pair with one card to come and the only card to help the other guy is the higher of his two pair and it hits with all your money in. About a 95% favorite.
GavinMcG 8y ago
Fundamental good practices. In poker terms: you can't judge by winning or losing, only by whether your decisions were +EV or -EV.
javitury 8y ago
Not a poker player, but I think you don't focus on realized results, you have to focus on expected results. What is gone is gone. Let's say you play texas hol'em, you go all-in with AA in the first round and lose. The expected payoff was positive even if you have lost. And if you were given the chance to play again, you should keep playing the same way.
- smnplk 8y ago
  http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-dollars/ http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/sklansky-do...
draw_down 8y ago
As GP said, you focus on making the correct decision given the circumstances. You can’t be results oriented because the results involve things out of your control. Which means it’s possible to win after making a bad play, and to lose after making a correct play.
paulcole 8y ago
Process and decision-making. Confidently make the correct decision every time and trust that your edge will pay off in the long run. This is the #1 thing I learned from being a serious and competitive Scrabble player.
gouldtechnique 8y ago
process-oriented
edmundsauto 8y ago
Annie Duke (one of the top players of all time) has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis. Highly recommended.
drjesusphd 8y ago
Results are often governed by factors you have no control over or knowledge of. If you get unlucky, it may not be because you made a bad decision.

woliveirajr 8y ago

> You can do everything right and still lose This one. I'm not sure how many readers I would have if I tried to explain it in a book, but I'm tired (to the point that I don't read the books, just the covers) about how everything will be ok if you just wish. When you just learn that sometimes people fail even having taking the best possible decision at any point, you get another perspective for your life.

slashdotdash 8y ago
"Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke [1] is just that book. It emphasises that a bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bet...
- davidscolgan 8y ago
  Recently read this book in a business book club. It's A++ and is a great mindset shift for business. Make high percentage decisions, and don't discount a decision if it was a good decision but the outcome happened to not work out.
- jdietrich 8y ago
  See also The Tao of Poker by Larry W Phillips. It's a genuine masterpiece of poker writing. https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Poker-Rules-Transform-Your/dp/1580628370 https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Poker-Rules-Transform-Your/dp/158...
- dmurray 8y ago
  Annie Duke has a terrible history of being involved in high-profile scams [0], and a mediocre record of actually playing poker. I haven't read the book, but if there's anything I'd trust her advice on, it's how to always position yourself one or two steps away from the fall guy. [0] https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/22503-why-does-mainstream-media-keep-talking-to-former-poker-pro-annie-duke https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/22503-why-does-mainstr...
8y ago

hoorayimhelping 8y ago

>"You can do everything right and still lose". Super insightful and eye opening when I finally wrapped my head around it. The insightful and valuable corollary / takeaway I get from this is: "But if you make the right move enough, you will win eventually." Determination matters, in poker, in business, in whatever hobby you do. I've noticed this laddering Counterstrike and Overwatch. Individual losses are frustrating, especially when you feel you made the right moves. But if you keep making the right moves, you will eventually win more than you lose in the long run. You just need to have the determination and drive to stick with it.

jandrese 8y ago
> "But if you make the right move enough, you will win eventually." Or run out of money trying.
- drjesusphd 8y ago
  If you have enough knowledge, confidence in said knowledge, and the discipline to consistently apply it, you will know how much money is required to make it a near certainty that won't happen.
bena 8y ago
It's also kind of the philosophy behind "fail fast and often". The outcome of any given decision is affected by so many things that all have to go right, it might as well be random, the only mistake is not making the decision. Eventually, things will line up if you just keep swinging.

maxxxxx 8y ago

"You can do everything right and still lose" I remember the saying "You are entitled to your actions, but not the results" somewhere in Indian philosophy. Means you should always do your best but there is still no guarantee for the expected result.

johnsang 8y ago

Learning to stick to the plan after getting crushed for weeks or months is something that can instill the worst doubt in the most confident of people. Learning to separate the feeling of results (both highs and lows) from the act of playing was one of poker's toughest lessons.

Philomath 8y ago

Being best friends with some of the best in the world (+1M earnings) I really want to emphasize this. I've seen my friends be happy after loosing a hand that would have won them an extra 70k in a tournament and really mean it when they say: I'm happy because I played that well, no matter the outcome. It's all about playing a lot. Eventually, statistics pay off.

maceurt 8y ago

On tip of that you can do everything wrong and still win.