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AI winter doesn't mean people stop using it. AI winter and spring aren't a phenomenon specific to AI...in essence it's the same dynamic found in economic bubble

AI winter doesn't mean people stop using it. AI winter and spring aren't a phenomenon specific to AI...in essence it's the same dynamic found in economic bubbles. In almost every economic bubble we see actual economic benefit underlying the hype, but the hype grows bigger than the benefit can account for, triggering eventual collapse of the hype. The thing that you should notice is that when the bubble collapses we don't stop buying, we just stop overinvesting. We haven't stopped buying tulips, trains, stocks, technology, or real estate. And just as well, we haven't stopped using symbolic AI, single-layer neural nets, ensemble models, expert systems, or logic programming languages. The new topological enhancements to Neural Nets won't ever go away either...but that doesn't mean we won't see a drop in investment once the general public realizes that your neural nets aren't going to learn how to do double-entry accounting any time soon. The AI winter isn't characterized by the technology going away, it is characterized by lofty idealism being shattered and investment dropping back to reflect reality.

mindcrime 8y ago
AI winter doesn't mean people stop using it. ... The thing that you should notice is that when the bubble collapses we don't stop buying, we just stop overinvesting. Right, but that doesn't match the way I feel the term "AI Winter" has been used. Now I could be mis-interpreting things, but I've always looked at an "AI Winter" as a period of underinvestment, created as an over-reaction to the mechanics you're referring to. but that doesn't mean we won't see a drop in investment once the general public realizes that your neural nets aren't going to learn how to do double-entry accounting any time soon. Right, but again, I don't think most people use "AI Winter" to mean a simple "drop in investment". If it were something that straightforward, there would be no need for the "Winter" metaphor. And that's why I say there may indeed be a drop... an "AI Fall" if you will, that still represents a pull-back of sorts, but perhaps just a less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past.
- mindcrime 8y ago
  D'oh. Too late to edit, but this: less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past. should read: less pronounced and extended pullback than we've seen in the past.

mindcrime 8y ago

AI winter doesn't mean people stop using it. ... The thing that you should notice is that when the bubble collapses we don't stop buying, we just stop overinvesting. Right, but that doesn't match the way I feel the term "AI Winter" has been used. Now I could be mis-interpreting things, but I've always looked at an "AI Winter" as a period of underinvestment, created as an over-reaction to the mechanics you're referring to. but that doesn't mean we won't see a drop in investment once the general public realizes that your neural nets aren't going to learn how to do double-entry accounting any time soon. Right, but again, I don't think most people use "AI Winter" to mean a simple "drop in investment". If it were something that straightforward, there would be no need for the "Winter" metaphor. And that's why I say there may indeed be a drop... an "AI Fall" if you will, that still represents a pull-back of sorts, but perhaps just a less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past.

mindcrime 8y ago
D'oh. Too late to edit, but this: less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past. should read: less pronounced and extended pullback than we've seen in the past.