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If there was a 5% the market would crash 50% tomorrow. Would you call that an almost certainty that it wouldn't happen? You wouldn't hedge your risk? If there w
by mruts 8y ago
If there was a 5% the market would crash 50% tomorrow. Would you call that an almost certainty that it wouldn't happen? You wouldn't hedge your risk? If there was a 5% that you would die tomorrow, you wouldn't feel concerned?
5% is huge.
- xkcd-sucks 8y ago5% is "huge" when considering probability of a "catastrophic" event compounded over time, because what you're really thinking of is "expected value over a year" or something like that. This 5 percent, by contrast, is a fraction of a population.
- P_I_Staker 8y agoWhat are you talking about? If 5% of the workforce showed up tomorrow, what do you think would happen? How'd you feel if you had a 5% chance of having transport to work?