5 ms·

5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. I wouldn't call that an almost certainty that you need a car. An almost certainty would be maybe under <.001

by mruts 8y ago

5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. I wouldn't call that an almost certainty that you need a car. An almost certainty would be maybe under <.001%

godelski 8y ago
> 5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. rephrasing: 95% of Americans take private transit to get to work. I would call that an almost certainty that you need a car.
- mruts 8y ago
  If there was a 5% the market would crash 50% tomorrow. Would you call that an almost certainty that it wouldn't happen? You wouldn't hedge your risk? If there was a 5% that you would die tomorrow, you wouldn't feel concerned? 5% is huge.
  - xkcd-sucks 8y ago
    5% is "huge" when considering probability of a "catastrophic" event compounded over time, because what you're really thinking of is "expected value over a year" or something like that. This 5 percent, by contrast, is a fraction of a population.
  - P_I_Staker 8y ago
    What are you talking about? If 5% of the workforce showed up tomorrow, what do you think would happen? How'd you feel if you had a 5% chance of having transport to work?
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
rosser 8y ago
How many of that 5% live in places where public transit is even a meaningful option for them to get to work? How much of the country is that, again? What's that ratio in the places where it isn't?
- xkcd-sucks 8y ago
  I'm wealthy enough to live in a place where commuting by public transit is practical. I should move to a car-only distance to save money, but end up spending it on the luxury of convenience.
coldtea 8y ago
People familiar with Eartly customs of casual conversation do call 95% "almost certainty".
- godelski 8y ago
  For example: There's a 95% chance I forgot about my tea and it ended up cold. We now ask "Do you expect my tea to be cold?" and can ask "On a scale of not certain to very certain, how certain are you?" I'm very certain my tea is cold. Now to forget it in the microwave.
nickthemagicman 8y ago
Semantics. They gave no qualification on their definition of 'almost certainly'. 5% is almost certainly enough for me.

by mruts 8y ago

5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. I wouldn't call that an almost certainty that you need a car. An almost certainty would be maybe under <.001%

godelski 8y ago

> 5% of Americans take public transit to get to work. rephrasing: 95% of Americans take private transit to get to work. I would call that an almost certainty that you need a car.

mruts 8y ago
If there was a 5% the market would crash 50% tomorrow. Would you call that an almost certainty that it wouldn't happen? You wouldn't hedge your risk? If there was a 5% that you would die tomorrow, you wouldn't feel concerned? 5% is huge.
- xkcd-sucks 8y ago
  5% is "huge" when considering probability of a "catastrophic" event compounded over time, because what you're really thinking of is "expected value over a year" or something like that. This 5 percent, by contrast, is a fraction of a population.
- P_I_Staker 8y ago
  What are you talking about? If 5% of the workforce showed up tomorrow, what do you think would happen? How'd you feel if you had a 5% chance of having transport to work?
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

rosser 8y ago

How many of that 5% live in places where public transit is even a meaningful option for them to get to work? How much of the country is that, again? What's that ratio in the places where it isn't?

xkcd-sucks 8y ago
I'm wealthy enough to live in a place where commuting by public transit is practical. I should move to a car-only distance to save money, but end up spending it on the luxury of convenience.

coldtea 8y ago

People familiar with Eartly customs of casual conversation do call 95% "almost certainty".

godelski 8y ago
For example: There's a 95% chance I forgot about my tea and it ended up cold. We now ask "Do you expect my tea to be cold?" and can ask "On a scale of not certain to very certain, how certain are you?" I'm very certain my tea is cold. Now to forget it in the microwave.

nickthemagicman 8y ago

Semantics. They gave no qualification on their definition of 'almost certainly'. 5% is almost certainly enough for me.