Traders think yields will drop. Yields drop because liquidity increases. Liquidity increases because more people want to lend than borrow. A recession lowers

Traders think yields will drop. Yields drop because liquidity increases. Liquidity increases because more people want to lend than borrow. A recession lowers the demand for debt, so the price drops and the yields rise. To fight the recession, the fed creates dollars and buys debt with them. The lower supply of and increased demand for debt raises the price, which drops the yield. But this would only happen if the fed was unable to control the recession. Economic expansion also raises the demand for debt. Or it could be the effect of international debt arbitrage. Or balance of trade. Truly I have no idea what traders are thinking. And they could all be wrong. All I know is that this is way more complicated than pattern recognition.